9/7/2018-1

Sino-US trade war risk lingering HSI short-term test 28000

The Sino-US trade war officially broke out less than a week. The US government suddenly launched a crisis and pushed the Sino-US trade war to a comprehensive crisis. The US government suddenly issued a new round of additional tariffs of up to 200 billion US dollars in the early hours of Hong Kong on Wednesday morning, based on the US side. The time and scale of the move to upgrade the trade crisis exceeded market expectations, and the stock markets in the two places fell on Wednesday. It is expected that Hong Kong stocks will continue to fluctuate in the short-term due to the escalation of the Sino-US trade war crisis. The HSI will not be able to test the 28,000-point checkpoint in the short term.

Although the market has generally expected the trade wars of the two major countries to escalate on the occasion of the official outbreak of the Sino-US trade war last Friday, the financial market has not reflected the rapid escalation of the trade war and the large-scale factor of 200 billion US dollars, so the relevant news A sudden impact on the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets.

Washington emphasizes willingness to negotiate with China

It is worth noting that US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a message that the process of tariffs on China is expected to last for about two months. The authorities expect to hold a public consultation on the list from August 20 to 23, and believe that it will not be implemented until August 30. Robert Lighthizer also pointed out that trade negotiations with China have not been successful so far, only to impose more tariffs, but stressed the willingness to continue negotiations with China.

The US trade representative’s remarks reflect that, on the one hand, the Washington government plans to introduce a tariff list of up to 200 billion U.S. dollars for additional Chinese imports, which ultimately depends on local public opinion and may not be as desired by the Trump administration. And successfully implemented. On the other hand, Washington currently still has the willingness to negotiate trade with the Chinese government. The Trump administration is not allowed to have enough time for the Chinese government to lay out this trick. It is not rule out that it is implementing the Telecommunications negotiation strategy-" The style and style of opening the bargain, bargaining, and increasing the bargaining chip of its future trade negotiations have made the Chinese government compromise.

Increase in cash or increase in income-bearing stocks

The Trump administration launched the largest tariff action in the United States since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and it has been arrogant in the global trade battlefield. It has successfully provoked multiple trade battles and has issued a letter to China from time to time on trade issues. The provocative and aggressive remarks made Trump’s popularity not rise and fall, and the support ratio even rose to more than 40% after its election, indicating that the Sino-US trade war actually favored Trump’s re-election, so In the next two years (that is, by the 2020 US presidential election campaign), the risk of the United States expanding its trade war with China will be lingering. In the short term, the investment strategy will continue to focus on increasing cash or adding public stocks, telecommunications stocks, high-quality rent-taking shares and real estate trust funds.