Banks are forced to “turn to death"
The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in the second half of this year have become the consensus of the market. On the other hand, the outgoing European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “export technology” has announced that the European Central Bank is considering re-relaxing monetary policy and doing everything possible. Eurozone inflation rose to a target level of about 2%.
The European and American central banks are all in line with the pigeons. However, the US dollar index is more likely to be seen after the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate after the Federal Reserve’s meeting last week. If the US dollar continues to weaken, the pressure on the depreciation of emerging market currencies, including the renminbi, will ease, and it will be a relief to disguise as emerging economies to create conditions by stimulating the economy by cutting interest rates.
At a time when global monetary policy has fully changed, Hong Kong’s bank funds have recently become tense. The one-month Hong Kong dollar interest rate (HIBOR) linked to mortgages was at 2.35 percent yesterday, from 11 June. The annual high is not far from 2.63 cents, and the three-month interest rate is also high at 24.44%. Not only has the interbank market opened up to “water tightness", HSBC, BOC and Standard Chartered, the three largest note-issuers in Hong Kong, have successively raised interest rates on Hong Kong dollar time deposits in the past few weeks, setting off a fierce battle for medium and long-term Hong Kong dollar funds.
Whether it is higher than the interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar, the arbitrage trade pushes the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar to the weak side to guarantee the level of exchange, forcing the Monetary Authority to intervene; or the Hong Kong and US interest margins in turn upside down, triggering the market panic to flatten the Hong Kong dollar market, Whenever the interest rate market volatility impacts the liquidity of the banking system, investors tend to catch up with the wind and the first time to think of capital outflows. However, the Hong Kong Exchange has recently moved away from the 7.85 weak party exchange guarantee level. The Bank has hoarded Hong Kong dollar funds to cope with market risks. The credibility is much higher than the political climate deterioration in Hong Kong.
In view of the uncertainties in the political and economic environment, Hong Kong banks are eagerly prepared for the first half of the year, and the semi-annual settlements have affected the demand for funds. As a result, Alibaba and Budweiser’s spin-off of Asian business listings are expected to freeze massive amounts of funds. The interference caused by market liquidity is believed to be short-lived. The Hong Kong dollar interest rate is expected to return to normal. However, from another perspective, after the seasonal factors and large-scale IPO activities, if the local capital tension is still not slowed down, even contrary to the global loosening trend, it means that the Hong Kong dollar interest rate environment has undergone structural changes, and the joint exchange system is stable and stable. It should not be underestimated.
The large-scale bank deposit base is strong, and the simple fund-raising period is short-term, which is not enough to explain why HSBC, BOC, Standard Chartered and other leading banks are chasing me in a short period of time, vying to snatch high-interest Hong Kong dollar funds with high interest rates. If the market environment is undergoing major changes, the style of large banks will not be so good for depositors, and it is even more impossible to automatically and voluntarily cancel the comprehensive management and general account service fees (HSBC, BOC, Standard Chartered, Hang Seng, East Asia from August). The traditional big bank “turns to death", of course, because the Hong Kong dollar interest rate environment has to change until the seasonal factors dissipate, see the real chapter, more importantly, the banks face the positive competition of low-cost operators, they have to deploy early, and they are eager to resist Virtual banking and technology giants are facing the challenge.
The bank is known as the mother of the industry. As the main financing channel for the economy around the world, this ancient industry cannot be turned over if it is too large. The government is both the regulator of the bank and the protector of the industry. This is enough to explain why there have been countless industries that have been subverted by technology over the years. The mode of operation of banks is still ten years, and of course, there are small changes, and the big changes in the bones are not known. If the HKMA does not require eight virtual banks to be licensed, the deposit service provided in the future will not be able to impose minimum balance charges on customers, which will inflict intangible pressure on traditional banks. The depositors may not have the opportunity to dismiss the relevant fees for the banks. To put it another way, the more comprehensive the market competition, the greater the space for bank customers who are accustomed to getting rid of “financial repression".
Since the outbreak of the global financial tsunami in 2008, central banks around the world have pursued a near-zero interest rate policy in the name of stimulating the economy. The property market and the stock market have benefited a lot, but the small depositors who are unable to switch to the asset market have long become super Victims of easing policy are uncompromising. Ironically, it is not the Fed’s nine-plus-half rate hike in the past three and a half years, but the virtual bank that has unlimited possibilities in the business model and two sentences in the three sentences. Regardless of whether the United States will cut interest rates as expected in the second half of the year, and regardless of how long the tension in Hong Kong dollars is maintained, the paradigm shift triggered by the new operating environment is the biggest variable facing the banking industry.