China Economic Commission’s goal for the next year: steady word comes first

The China Economic Commission concluded yesterday

The meeting proposed to ensure that the economy operates in a reasonable range and achieve the expected goals for next year. When it comes to steady growth, the fall of financial policy precedes monetary policy.

The Central Economic Work Conference (hereinafter referred to as the “China Economic Commission”) ended yesterday. The meeting pointed out that six key tasks must be done next year: first, unswervingly implement the new development concept; second, resolutely fight three major offensives; third, ensure The people’s livelihood, especially the basic lives of people in need, are effectively guaranteed and improved; the fourth is to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a sound monetary policy; the fifth is to promote high-quality development; and the sixth is to deepen the reform of the economic system.

In terms of overall goals, the meeting proposed to improve and strengthen the “six stability” measures to ensure that the economy operates in a reasonable range, and to achieve the expected goals next year, we must adhere to the word stability, adhere to macro policies to be stable, micro policies to live, and social policies to be trusted Policy framework to improve the forward-looking, targeted and effective macro-control.

The meeting emphasized the need to “ensure a reasonable growth of the economy and a steady improvement in quality.” Wang Yiming, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said earlier that China should not place too much emphasis on the 6% growth rate and should focus on “high-quality economic development”. importance. The Asian Development Bank predicts that China ’s economic growth this year and next will be 6.1% and 5.8%.

Financial Strategy “Strengthening Quality and Efficiency”

In fact, the CEC’s overall manuscript did not show a strong stimulating statement. Last year’s fiscal policy adjustment was “strengthening and improving efficiency”, and this year it was only “strengthening and improving quality and efficiency”, which was obviously not as positive as in previous years. In addition, in the coming year, we must focus on “quality”. We can imagine that we will not put “quantity” on the fiscal policy.

The fall of financial policy precedes monetary policy, so what is the focus of financial policy? In the manuscript of the Economic and Social Commission of China, it attaches great importance to environmental protection and puts it in a higher position. The meeting stated that “the fight against pollution prevention must be done well” and “to promote the continuous improvement of the quality of the ecological environment. . The environmental protection industry, especially the new energy vehicle related industry chain, deserves attention.

Another highlight was medical care for the elderly. The meeting emphasized the need to “accelerate the nationwide coordination of pension insurance” and “deepen market-oriented reforms in the field of medical care and other livelihood services.”

In addition, the meeting also referred to “leading funds to invest in advanced manufacturing, infrastructure shortcomings, and other fields to promote” double upgrades “in industry and consumption. Next year’s fiscal policy is still expected to strengthen infrastructure investment. Li Shigang, deputy director of the Situation Department of the Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, predicts that fiscal policy will be more active next year, and the deficit will be appropriately expanded. The deficit rate will exceed 3% to make room for tax and fee reductions and increased infrastructure.

No increase in local debt

In terms of monetary policy, the meeting mentioned: “Prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and adequate liquidity.” Li Shigang said that the currency policy carries out normal counter-cyclical adjustments. If there is not much flooding, it should reduce interest rates and cut interest rates. It will reduce interest rates through small, high-frequency and reform methods to guide the actual interest rate downward. In other words, the currency policy is not expected to be flooded next year, and the currency policy is expected to remain moderately loose.

In particular, it should be noted that last year’s China Economic and Trade Commission mentioned that “the scale of the local government’s special bonds has been increased significantly.” This year, it has not mentioned anything, and its intention to control leverage is obvious.

It is worth noting that, unlike the previous Politburo meeting, the China Economic Commission re-emphasized “housing and living without speculation.” The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning of the house for living, not for speculation, comprehensive and thorough policy based on the city, stable land prices, stable house prices, and stable long-term management mechanisms to promote stable and healthy development of the real estate market 

To sum up, the tone of the China Economic Commission is cautious. Investors should give up the illusion of stabilizing growth, currency strategy and lever control, financial policy will only fall to individual industries, and interior housing should wait and see.


Main page                                                                                                 Next page

發佈留言

發佈留言必須填寫的電子郵件地址不會公開。 必填欄位標示為 *