Hong Kong stocks underperformed the main investment market last year
Chen Zhizhou, chief investment director of Manulife Investment Management’s Asian equity investment department, believes that as the Sino-U.S. Trade war cools down and the market “underweights” Hong Kong stocks, I believe Hong Kong stocks will return to Beishui and foreign capital this year. With the rising tide, “30,000 points is not impossible.”
In an exclusive interview with this newspaper, Chen Zhizhou said that Hong Kong stocks are a capital market this year
Three major reasons support the market’s upward trend. (1) Last year, everyone was “underweight” Hong Kong stocks. This year, if you buy goods, you will push the market up; There will be more market transactions than last year. (3) The current valuation of U.S. stocks is no longer cheap. In addition, investors have generally “heavy stocked” U.S. stocks. This year, U.S. stocks lack major incentives to increase. It is not ruled out that some funds will be invested by U.S. stocks. Flow to the Hong Kong stock market.
“At present, all Hong Kong stocks are” underweighted. “If U.S. stocks are not particularly bad this year, the trade war will cool down, and funds will flow back. (HSI) 30,000 points is not impossible.” Manulife Global Fund, a subsidiary of Chen Zhizhou’s team, grows The fund, which ranked among the top three funds in the Hong Kong stock market last year, returned more than 20% as of December 24 last year, far outperforming the HSI.
Chen Zhizhou pointed out that Hong Kong was plagued by political events last year, but the performance of Hong Kong stocks was not too bad. With the US Federal Reserve’s “water release”, the Asian Central Bank has followed interest rate cuts and the market has ample liquidity. It is believed that Asia will continue to pursue loose monetary policy this year. In addition, the weaker US dollar is expected to boost the market performance.
U.S. stocks expected to fluctuate this year
“Every year in the U.S. election year, U.S. stocks tend to be more volatile, and funds are flowing out of the U.S. stock market in search of better investment opportunities.” He believes that this year, except for the U.S. election, there are no large-scale macro events like last year. The risk is only a policy error in the Mainland, which leads to a sharp rise in corporate default rates and the government does not support economic growth. However, he believes that the risk of a central policy error is low.
China and the United States have reached the first-phase trade agreement. Chen Zhizhou pointed out that it is unlikely that China and the United States will conduct the second-stage negotiations in the next 12 months. Instead, the market is more concerned about the development of science and technology wars. China’s policy is expected to be more than do, but it is certain that China and the United States have lost mutual trust and the two countries will continue to be competitors. Although the news of the Sino-US trade war this year will still dominate the market, the influence will be further reduced.
China and the United States switch to science and technology war
Huawei was included in the “Entity List” by the U.S. government last year. Chen Zhizhou said that U.S. government agencies will not buy Huawei equipment, and the mainland government has also reported that U.S. software will be deactivated in the future. See at the level, so the impact on the economies of the two countries is limited, but we must pay close attention to the wrestling of the two countries on the scientific and technological level.
In addition to paying attention to the disputes between China and the United States on trade issues, he believes that Trump has become the third president in US history to be impeached and approved, and is also the focus of the market. Investors are advised to pay attention to future developments. The bureau’s monetary policy is biased towards “doves”, but it still needs to pay attention to whether the authorities will increase the amount in the future; the Chinese side should respond to the increase in corporate defaults in recent months and pay attention to whether the economic slowdown in the Mainland will increase.