Tsai Ing-wen succeeded in being re-elected as President of Taiwan
The outside world is concerned about whether Taiwan’s economy can continue to recover, and Taiwan’s GDP growth rate in 2019 will reach 2.78%. The competition between China and the United States in trade technology has indirectly benefited Taiwan’s technology industry, and it is doubtful whether the property market will be driven by economic growth. Xie Zhijie of the Ministry of Housing and Industry Management stated that the property market in Taiwan will only develop steadily this year, and the growth rate will not be urgent. In terms of the Taipei property market’s sales in 2019, its growth rate is only 3%, which is the smallest growth rate in the six capitals. It shows that buyers’ desire for price in Taipei is low, and sellers continue to adhere to prices, resulting in transaction volume maintaining. Low level.
Xie Zhijie said that China and the United States reached the first phase of the trade agreement, the Taiwan stock market exceeded 12,000 points, the market is relatively optimistic about the economic outlook, the consumer confidence index hit a 12-year high, and the number of real estate transactions is expected to exceed the 300,000 mark. However, although the transaction volume is picking up, according to the Yongqing Real Estate Trend Survey, about 45% of prospective buyers are mainly self-occupied demand, and the buyer’s willingness to chase prices is low, which makes the possibility of a sharp rise in property prices lower. Property prices will still show a horizontal pattern in 2020. At this stage, there is a large supply of housing in the market, which belongs to the buyer’s market. If the owner raises the price, it may affect the buyer’s willingness to buy a property and extend the sale period of the house. Therefore, it is recommended that the owner not overly watch the property market.
Intention to buy property increased last month
The first phase of the China-US trade agreement drove the global stock market to heat up. Taiwanese stocks followed the upward trend. Taiwan benefited from the effect of order transfer and the return of Taiwanese businessmen. Consumer confidence rebounded. Home ownership confidence hit a new 12-year high. People ’s confidence in buying a house turned optimistic. The increase has caused the property market to show a small spring in December last year, and the property market in Taiwan has shown a rising market pattern. According to statistics from the Yongqing Real Estate Group Research and Exhibition Center, Taiwan ’s trading volume in December last year increased by 4% compared with November. As for the real estate market volume in various metropolitan areas, Taipei rose 11%, Xinbei increased 7%, Taoyuan rose slightly 6%, and Hsinchu The counties and cities increased by 1%, Taichung rose by 4%, and Tainan and Kaohsiung rose by 13% and were unchanged.
The number of houses visited by Taiwan in December last year was the same as that in November, which also showed that citizens who wanted to get on the bus were active and the demand from home buyers continued. Xie Zhijie added that according to the Yongqing Real Estate Trends Survey, the number of people seeing car disks rose to 45%, a new high in five years, showing that property prices have continued to flatten out. In the self-occupied market, property prices have risen and fallen sharply. The chance is lower. When the results of the presidential election are implemented, it is believed that the public’s confidence in entering the market will pick up. If the price gap between buyers and sellers is closer, the market buying trend is expected to continue until the Lunar New Year.
No significant increase in salaries
However, Xie Zhijie reminded that although the property market continued to recover this year, the annual transaction volume challenged 300,000 units, which had been growing for four consecutive years, but the data also showed that it was slowing down. At the same time, without a significant increase in salaries, the burden of home ownership is still heavy, and the property market is difficult to rise rapidly. In addition, the second phase of the trade war will not reach agreements too quickly, oversupply, and whether the new government will launch a new property market policy after taking office Under the three major variables, the property market outlook cannot be overly optimistic.
Foreigners come to Taiwan to buy properties, and Kaohsiung is the most popular among the six capitals. According to statistics, Kaohsiung City ’s cumulative foreign trade increased from January to August 2019 by 46.9%, and New Taipei and Tainan also showed positive growth trends. The CITIC Housing Research and Exhibition Room is based on statistics from Liudu. Except for Kaohsiung, Tainan is followed by 11.1%, while Xinbei has also increased by 9.6%, while Taichung has fallen by 20.2%, Taoyuan and Taipei have fallen slightly by 5.1% and 4.7% respectively.
Foreigners’ preference for Kaohsiung increased by more than 40% in the first August of last year. Zhang Hanchao, deputy manager of the CITIC Housing Research and Exhibition Office, pointed out that foreigners who come to Taiwan to buy a property mainly focus on development conditions, business opportunities and topicality, and analyze the reason why Kaohsiung City has grown significantly by 46.9%. It should be optimistic about local development and political topicality. Regarding the question of whether mainland buyers will come to Taiwan to settle in Kaohsiung, Zhang Hanchao stated that according to the government’s definition of “foreign land rights management”, the “mainland people” has been excluded from the statistics of “foreigners” in the data, in other words In other words, the phenomenon of foreigners coming to Taiwan to buy property has not included mainland Chinese.
Compared with mainlanders, Hong Kong people’s arrival and settlement in Taiwan have shown signs of increase. Comparing the statistics of the CITIC Housing Research Room with data from the Taiwan Immigration Department, it is found that the number of mainland compatriots in Taiwan, regardless of whether they are residents or residents, decreased in the first eight months of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. The increase, the decline in the number of mainlanders coming to Taiwan is mainly related to the reduction in mainland China’s permission to come to Taiwan, and the overrepresentation of incidents in Hong Kong, may be the main reason for Hong Kong people to come to Taiwan to buy properties.
Hong Kong people’s home buying boom in Taiwan is expected to be short-lived
Zhang Hanchao believes that the proportion of Hong Kong people living in Taiwan has increased significantly since the Hong Kong “return-in-transit” incident. In addition to showing that Hong Kong people are adopting risk-allocated asset allocation due to concerns about resistance, on the other hand, it is also due to the real estate prices Living space is more advantageous than Hong Kong. Under many considerations, Hong Kong people will be willing to choose to stay or settle in Taiwan.
However, the good house research report pointed out that the Sino-US trade war has promoted the return of Taiwanese businessmen’s funds, and the situation in Hong Kong has promoted Hong Kong people to buy properties in Taiwan. These are short-term factors. . Moreover, the rental return rate in Taiwan is still relatively low compared with the Chinese gathering areas such as Los Angeles and Vancouver, Canada, so it is not attractive to foreign investment. Therefore, the main force of buying property in Taiwan this year will still come from the need to move houses from the city center to the suburbs and the car disk. At the same time, the main reason for the rise in property prices is the wages of wage earners in Taiwan, and the average salary has not increased significantly for more than 20 years. Therefore, we maintain a neutral view on the prospect of property prices in Taiwan.