Earlier, some economists predicted that Hong Kong had a 40% chance of implementing a martial law or emergency order
Recently, a bank strategist analyzed that the current political situation in Hong Kong has little effect on Hong Kong stocks. However, if the conflict continues to escalate, the stock market will fall to the worst. At the level of 16,800, Hong Kong’s property prices will fall by 30% next year. This year’s economic growth (GDP) will fall by nearly 6%.
The title of an online media is a picture of the “end-of-life scene” after the “follow-up”. “Heng Seng Index was washed with blood of 9,000 points and property prices were squandered for 30% next year.”
If you want to be out of the position, you may want to talk more, so that the friends who want to “snap” are very excited, so that the friends who are waiting to buy a building hope to overflow.
I am here as an economist to announce that if the conflict escalates, the stock market will disappear by 30,000 points, falling to four figures, and the price of the property will fall by 90%, which is more than the “tsunami”. Enough of the “last days” Lama?
Of course, the above is a joke. Seriously, Hong Kong has a precedent for martial law, but it has not happened before the PLA. The anti-reform movement has evolved from the original “and rationality” to the current “no big Taiwan” expression, and the police’s evolutionary strategy is also a new thing in Hong Kong. There is no precedent for reference. What is the significance of the so-called opportunity rate for events that rarely occur or never occur?
Sometimes, in the face of unknown or too complicated events, we can talk about not much, and the predictions are even less certain. Knowing it as knowing it, I don’t know it, I know it. It is not impossible to calculate the opportunity rate. There is always a theory or model behind it. However, the political decisions and gamers involved in the incident are so complicated, and the calculated opportunity rate is reliable and limited.
Moreover, the meaning of “conflict escalation” is actually vague
Going back to the past, can you anticipate the various developments that occurred in July in June?
There is an endless stream of resistance, and no one knows how to “upgrade”. Even the demonstrators involved in it do not know. I don’t know what the event is, and what is the reference value of the macro forecast inferred from it?
In the final analysis, the experts have only two messages
“The political situation in Hong Kong has a chance to deteriorate” and “If the political situation is worse, the economy will be worse”, but the two messages are too small to attract attention. It is necessary to rely on some numbers to package, so that things become well-founded and objective science.
Experts want to maintain their omniscient image, and the media also like to report such bold predictions, so the number of such foundations is not full of the market.