The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Financial and Economic Strategy Research Institute released the “Monthly Analysis Report on China’s Housing Market Development
The report shows that in June this year, core cities prices basically stopped rising, and the overall price stability target was achieved. .
According to the report, the latitude core index reflecting the comprehensive changes in housing prices in 24 core cities across the country shows that in June 2019, the latitude core index rose slightly to 105.82 points. Compared with the 105.73 points in May, the house price rose by only 0.09%. As of June 2019, housing prices in core cities have risen for five months, but prices have continued to decline since April. In June, the price growth rate of core cities slowed down further from February to May, and house prices in core cities have basically stopped rising in the past month. From the second-hand housing volume index, while the housing prices tend to be stable, the volume of second-hand housing transactions in the core cities continues to drop rapidly.
First-tier cities have a slight decline in overall housing prices
The data shows that the price of first-tier cities has changed from a structural increase to a slight decline. In the first-tier cities, the latitude index monitoring showed that in June 2019, the average price of first-tier cities fell by 0.615%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.753 percentage points from the previous month. House prices in Beijing and Guangzhou continued to maintain a steady decline, with Guangzhou down 0.86% and Beijing down 0.48%. Shanghai and Shenzhen turned from small to small, with Shenzhen down 0.98% and Shanghai down 0.14%.
From the cumulative increase since January 2018, there has not been a significant increase in housing prices in first-tier cities in the past year and a half. In the first-tier cities, the highest increase in housing prices in Shenzhen was 2.92%, and the lowest in Shanghai was -6.29%, which was generally in a relatively stable range.
First- and second-tier cities are expected to fall slightly
The report gives short-term forecasts. Although first- and second-tier cities are the gathering areas of China’s high-end industries and the main inflows of population, the thresholds for housing prices and housing purchase policies are relatively high. With the tightening of the regulation policies of first- and second-tier cities since the second quarter of 2019, the speculative component of the real estate market has been continuously squeezed out, the volatility of house prices has continued to decrease, and the short-term market has the momentum of downward adjustment.
The third- and fourth-tier cities generally lack high-end industries and talent attractiveness, and the real estate market does not specifically meet the conditions for long-term continuous rise.
Long-term rental apartments are more likely to explode
In terms of housing rentals, the core of the latitude rental, which reflects the overall change in housing rents in 22 core cities across the country, showed that core urban housing rents rose in May and June after seasonal adjustments in March and April. In June, the core city housing rent index was 104.64, up 0.39% from the previous month and up 1.17% from the same period last year. Despite the increase in rents, due to economic conditions and other factors, the rate of increase in rents has slowed considerably compared to the same period last year.
The Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that under the condition that the rental growth rate is less than expected, the long-rental apartment management enterprises with relatively aggressive management methods will face greater operational pressure, and some long-term rental apartment enterprises are more likely to “explode