DBS Hong Kong stocks see 16800 property prices 30%

DBS Hong Kong and Mainland China equity strategist Lin Zijin made three major situational predictions for Hong Kong’s economy

If the worst case scenario is that the protests and violence will escalate again, it is estimated that Hong Kong’s economy will contract by 3.8 to 5.9% this year. The high position is inserted between 20% and 30%, and the HSI may fall to 16,800 points to 21,600 points this year. In other words, the most pessimistic HSI has a chance to fall by 9,491 points.

DBS Lin Zijin believes that investors have high risk aversion and conservative attitudes, and the stock market will not rise

However, he prefers that the demonstrations will dissipate before October 1 this year due to the loss of public support. In this basic scenario, the target for the Hang Seng Index is 26,050 points at the end of the year. The economy will start to rebound in the fourth quarter. The annual GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will increase by zero, and the residential property price will fall by 3% at the end of the year.

Can be used in the real estate banking sector

In another scenario, social conflicts such as demonstrations continue until the end of the year. In this case, the Hang Seng Index will fall to 24,400 points by the end of the year. Hong Kong’s GDP will shrink by 2.5% this year, and residential property prices will fall by 15% next year.

He stressed that the impact of Hong Kong’s demonstrations on the stock market is lower than that of Sino-US trade. It is expected that China and the United States will “pour in” before the US presidential election next year, and believe that the two sides reach a consensus to help US President Trump’s election. . He also pointed out that the situation in Hong Kong is “adding more chips” to the trade war, but it is not the core of negotiations between the two countries.

Under the current market conditions, Lin believes that investors can start with Hong Kong property stocks or banking stocks. He described these blue chip stocks as “very attractive”.

As for the sector, he is optimistic about catering, Chinese education and property management that are structurally growth and unaffected by trade wars. However, he is pessimistic about hardware and non-consumer necessities. He believes that these industries are not stable and are on a downward trend.


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