Whether China’s economic growth will remain “secure 6” remains a secret, and there are still differences in the first-phase agreement between China and the United States
At the end of the year, the biggest highlight of the mainland economy in many undercurrents is the improvement in the capital market. With the expectation of a more relaxed financial environment and asset shortages in 2020, the mainland’s stock market and property market may be where the opportunities are.
In the last month of 2019, A shares ushered in Xiaoyangchun ahead of time. The Shanghai stock index not only regained 3,000 points, but also increased by nearly 35% compared with the beginning of last year, which means that A shares have entered a bull market technically. This is due to the prolonged Sino-US trade war, which ushered in the first phase of the consensus on December 14, and the loose tone set by the Central Economic Work Conference.
A shares expected to rise more than 20%
For 2020, the market is optimistic that under the support of two positive factors, A-shares can achieve a gain of at least 20% this year. Many institutions have recently started to actively leverage to open positions, reflecting investors’ optimistic expectations for 2020. Securities companies generally believe that financial stocks and technology stocks will be the main capital absorption pool this year. Under the logic of “steady”, wide finances and expansion of infrastructure will carry the bottom of the policy. Infrastructure stocks will also perform well.
On the other hand, this year ’s Central Economic Work Conference ’s presentation of the property market has undergone subtle changes. Although it adheres to the “no housing and speculation” tone, the new formulation of “steady land prices, stable house prices, and stable expectations” generally emphasizes upward synergy. , The urgency of preventing the “big drop” in house prices and land prices exceeds the “big rise”.
Renminbi trend
Some Beijing scholars predict that although the Central Political Bureau reiterated in mid-2019 that it will not use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term, the economic downturn has accelerated since the second half of the year, and it has an important relationship with the tightening of real estate leverage. That is, stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, stable expectations) and a moderately relaxed financial environment, real estate will welcome warmth this year, especially in cities below the third and fourth tiers. With the opening of the household registration system Reform, the property market will also have a linkage effect, becoming an important force to ensure that the economy does not slip out of the bottom line.
As for the RMB exchange rate, it is mainly affected by the two major factors of the second phase of Sino-US trade and the trend of China’s economic growth. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly at the “7 calculation” level.