According to the Financial Secretary’s description, Hong Kong is now facing an “economic typhoon”
Hong Kong’s foreign trade is shrinking due to Sino-US trade frictions. Trade, logistics and transportation industries are directly affected. The recent amendments have hit Hong Kong. Retail, catering and tourism, as well as various uncertainties in internal and external troubles, have made the economic downturn in the second half of the year quite large.
Since the first quarter of last year, Hong Kong’s economic momentum has continued to slow down
The economic growth rate has gradually slowed from the 4.6% in the first quarter of last year to 0.5% in the second quarter of this year. If we look at the quarter-to-quarter comparison, the previous quarter showed a negative growth of 0.4%, which is weaker than the original estimate of minus 0.3%. If the third quarter continues to show negative growth in the quarter, the economy of Hong Kong will be technically in recession.
At the same time, even if the United States restarts interest rate cuts to stimulate the local economy, the local bank’s new mortgage interest rate will not decrease
HSBC and Hang Seng Bank have upgraded the new mortgage interest rate and adjusted the H interest rate by 0.1%. To H plus 1.24%, the capping rate was also raised to P (best interest rate) minus 2.65%. The interest rate is now slightly raised to 2.475%. It is naturally more prudent for buyers to enter the market.
HSBC’s interest rate increase was essentially the second time that the bank increased its interest rate in the past two months. In addition, due to political turmoil, the property market has turned its momentum. Recently, many banks are processing mortgage applications. Quite careful, I believe that other banks will have the opportunity to follow the increase in interest rates later.
In addition, according to the trend of local interbank interest rates in recent months, the interest rate in recent months has risen significantly and continues to be high. The latest interbank interest rate has rebounded slightly to 1.83%.
Looking at the record, the local bank’s one-month interbank interest rate rose to 2% in June and once rose to a new high of nearly 3% in 2011. Even if it has significantly changed in recent months, it has been at a level of 1.8% or more for a long time. The level of was significantly improved at around 1 PCT, and the increase in interest rates reflected the tightness of funds within the banking system. It did not rule out the individual capitalization caused by a series of political events.
Market wait-and-see mood
It is undeniable that the direction of capital may have become a key factor in the trend of the market. According to the latest daily summary of the bank settlement account provided by the HKMA, the total balance was about 54.28 billion yuan on August 16, compared with 76.5 billion at the beginning of the year. Yuan did fall back, but according to the 54.5 billion yuan in the previous month, the flow of funds in recent months is not obvious. In addition, the total deposits of customers in the banking system in the past month still maintain an upward trend. As of the end of June, it is close to 1.3608. One trillion yuan, an increase of 5% year-on-year.
In conclusion, the current banking system’s funding situation is still stable. However, due to a series of political turmoil, all aspects of the attitude tend to be prudent. Developers are slowing down the pace of pushing, banks are taking a more cautious approach, and valuations are rising. It also slightly raised the new mortgage interest rate. Under various factors, buyers naturally suspend their decision to enter the market. Recently, the overall first-hand and second-hand transactions have dropped significantly. The property prices are bound to consolidate. I believe the market will remain in the wait-and-see atmosphere for some time.