The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced the state of operation of the national economy in 2019 last year
The good news is that the “Bao Liu” mission is not humiliated. The worrying thing is that the growth rate of GDP has slowed for two consecutive years, and The 6.1% increase was the lowest in 29 years. The short-term deceleration may be matched by loose monetary measures and expansionary fiscal policies. However, if the demographic dividend that the Chinese economy has relied on for many years has undergone structural changes, it cannot be easily solved with money. Judging that once the demographic trend reverses, it will be very difficult to turn back. Along this path, “before getting rich” is probably the most serious challenge facing China.
In the past two years, the focus of the media has been on the splendid trade war between China and the United States and all-round wrestling
Economists and geopolitical scientists have described how aging affects China’s long-term economic structure and global power balance. In other words, whether policy makers can properly handle the aging population crisis is not only related to China’s future national movements, but may also dominate the future of China and the United States.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the total population of the Mainland exceeded 1.4 billion in 2019, but the total number of newborn babies was only 14.65 million, a decline for three consecutive years; what is even more worrying is that China The birth rate fell to the lowest level since the founding of the Chinese Communist Party in 1949 last year, with only 10.48 newborns per 1,000 people, far below the replacement level required to maintain natural population growth.
China’s economic miracle is obvious to all, but even after 30 to 40 years of rapid growth, the per capita GDP of the mainland is still only equivalent to about one third of South Korea and about one quarter of Japan. The so-called old before rich means that China is still far from becoming rich, but the birth rate is falling faster and more completely to catch up with rich countries, and the accelerated aging of the population has resulted in the shrinking labor force, the expansion of medical benefits and economic vitality. Difficult issues such as gradual loss are enough to form a vicious circle for China’s long-term development.
One out of five people in the Mainland is aged 60 or over now
As the birth rate is lower than the normal replacement level year after year, the decline in the labor force will inevitably lead to a decline in productivity and further increase in wages; in the long run, economic growth is inevitable Was significantly slowed down. Demographic trend scholars have warned that from now to 2030, China’s population change will reduce GDP growth by half a percentage point each year. If, unfortunately, China’s economic growth rate of 6.1% last year, in less than ten years, I am afraid to follow in the footsteps of the “old world” such as Europe and Japan and become a low-growth country.
There are various reasons for the population crisis in the Mainland. The previous one-child policy is of course “original sin”, but it is known that the birth rate does not increase but decreases after the authorities relax the birth restriction. The well-known factors such as high property prices and rising living costs have greatly reduced couples ’income. Baby’s intention. Fearless males and females are unwilling to give birth, dare not give birth, and no matter how many encouragement policies, they are not helpful.
At the beginning of this century, China is still recognized as the “world factory”. The external impression of China is generally inseparable from the deep roots of cottage culture, insufficient corporate innovation, extensive economic models, and difficulties in promoting domestic consumption; that is, economic transformation only Smell the stairs. Today, similar goodwill or malicious criticism has significantly decreased.
A famous New York Times commentator David Leonhardt published a paper entitled “The Rise of China That Americans Cannot Understand” on Thursday, detailing the author ’s perceptions of 2010 and recent visits to China. Compare the changes in the Mainland during the two visits. The 2011 Pulitzer Prize winner found that the biggest difference between China and the United States is not the comprehensive national strength that remains disparate, but that China has made great strides in areas such as scientific research, promotion of consumption, and corporate innovation. In the past few years, the United States has been retreating in the areas of reducing social injustice and strengthening investment in the future. This has gone a long way, which is greatly detrimental to Uncle Sam’s maintenance of world supremacy. The conclusion is that China’s hope stems from “continued progress”, while the bane of the United States lurks in “stagnation.”
Whenever China’s economic reforms fall into a bottleneck, it is often necessary to use external forces to break the deadlock. The entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 has ushered in double-digit growth for ten years as a significant example. From this perspective, if China and the United States reach a phased economic and trade agreement that has similar effects as “accession to the WTO,” it will be more beneficial than disadvantageous for China to continue on the road to reform. Whether optimists overestimate China depends on whether the authorities can effectively deal with the real problem of population crisis.
According to data from the International Census Bureau’s International Database, between 1990 and 2019, the working-age population in the United States increased by 31.5 percent, while China’s growth rate was 33.1 percent, which was basically in parallel. However, looking forward to the next three decades, the strength of the two countries will be judged. The working-age population in the United States is expected to increase by 13%, and China will decrease by 20.6%.
In recent years, China has undoubtedly been at the forefront of the world in cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, and even surpassed the United States in some fields. However, if the labor force in the Mainland has shrunk by 20% in just one generation, it may be difficult for the economy to maintain steady and rapid growth. Its difficult. In order to realize the Chinese dream, Beijing leaders must first succeed in earnestly “creating people” and maintain the long-lasting labor productivity.