The four factors of Dai Deliang’s ranks will fall by 10% at the end of the property price

DTZ has published the third quarter residential and investment market report

The bank said that the social conflict continues, and the new tariff measures between China and the United States are in full swing. Since May, the number of residential transactions has been greatly reduced, and property prices have also fallen from high levels. Therefore, it is expected that the property price will fall by 10% in the fourth quarter, but the average property price of large-scale residential buildings will still increase by 0% to 5% for the whole year. He also threatened, “Doing a long-term forecast, it is the most difficult season to do."

Tao Dehong, vice president of Greater China for DTZ and Greater China, and pointed out that the current property market is mainly affected by four major factors, namely, large-scale demonstration conflicts, Sino-US trade wars, interest rate trends and housing supply. He believes that the interest rate is not reduced, and the housing supply is still lagging behind, which strongly supports the property market and does not fall sharply. It also means that once the social conflict is resolved, the property market will rebound rapidly.

If the conflict is resolved, it is expected to be a fast speed bomb

According to Tao Yuhong, the number of residential transactions in Hong Kong fell from a high of 8,208 in May to less than 5,000 in June, July and August. It is believed that the situation in September continued and about 4,500 trades were recorded, with one hand mainly. He added that the quietest period in the past market was not SARS, but the financial turmoil. Compared with the number of second-hand residential transactions, it recorded 2,859 cases in August this year, close to the number of SARS in 2003, but still in January 2016 and The level of 1,600 in December was high, and it is estimated that second-hand transactions will fall to 2,000 per month at the end of the year.

The transaction continued to be sluggish

In the property investment market, as of mid-September, only 30 large-scale transactions of more than 100 million yuan were recorded in the third quarter, down 55% quarter-to-quarter, the lowest since the launch of the double stamp duty in the third quarter of 2013. Less than 200 large transactions were made, which was lower than in 2013.

Tao Yuhong bluntly said that the current housing market outlook is unpredictable, but in the case of supply shortages and low interest rates, it is positive for buyers, but it is predicted that if the demonstrations continue, the property market forecast will be re-adjusted. He said that although the current decline in property prices has not been in the past SARS or the financial turmoil period, I believe that the property market should maintain a low turnover for a period of time before it will affect property prices. I believe that the downturn may not continue until next year, and it is not considered to be. Price tide."

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