China’s second-quarter GDP increased by 6.2%. June consumption is booming. Experts: Downside pressure is not removed. More easing policy is needed.
Affected by the Sino-US trade war, China’s economic growth continued to slow down in the second quarter of this year. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.2% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points slower than the first quarter. It is the lowest quarterly GDP since the record in 1992, but in line with market expectations. In the first half of the year, GDP grew by 6.3% year-on-year and was between the official growth target of 6% and 6.5%. It is worth noting that in June alone, some economic data rebounded from May, indicating that the economy is showing signs of stabilization. However, the analysis pointed out that the Sino-US trade war has not been resolved, the economy still has downward pressure, and more easing policies are needed in the second half of the year. Support the economy.
Solid investment industry added value wins expectations
The data shows that the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year in June, 1.3 percentage points faster than that in May, better than the market expectation of 5.2%. The total retail sales of consumer goods in June was 3.39 trillion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points higher than that in May. The growth rate was the highest since March 2018.
In addition, the national fixed asset investment increased by 5.8% in the first half of the year, higher than the market expectation of 5.5%. In the first half of the year, the industrial added value was 6%, and the retail sales of social consumer goods rose by 8.4%, both of which were better than market expectations.
A number of real estate operating indicators have slowed down. In the first half of the year, the national real estate development investment fell to 10.9% year-on-year, and the new construction area of housing decreased to 10.1% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the sales area of commercial housing decreased to 1.8% year-on-year.
Daherson Bank economist Wen Jiayu said that China’s GDP in the second quarter was slightly lower than the 6.4% in the first quarter, mainly reflecting further slowdown in foreign trade, but domestic demand remained relatively stable. Retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment improved in June compared with May, indicating that the mainland supports economic measures or play a role in offsetting the uncertainties in foreign trade.
Wen Jiaxuan believes that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) launched a policy of encouraging new car sales in June, stimulating auto sales growth of 17.2% year-on-year, as well as online retail sales growth, driving overall retail performance. In addition, industrial production growth accelerated in June due to high-tech manufacturing growth. Further acceleration, as well as sales of new energy vehicles surged year by year.
Bank of Communications: the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction
Mao Shengyong, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that from the second half of the year, the external environment may be more complicated, and there is downward pressure in the country, but the fundamentals of stable economic operation will not change, and there is still much room for policy reserves, including the domestic market. In the continuous expansion, from the combination of these factors, it is beneficial to achieve the goal of economic growth throughout the year. He expects that real estate investment will not fluctuate in the second half of the year, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound at a low level.
HSBC issued a report stating that although some economic data stabilized in June, Sino-US trade relations are still tense, and China needs more easing policies to reverse the trend of economic slowdown.
Minsheng Bank expects that monetary policy will maintain marginal easing, and tools such as lowering policy interest rates, targeted interest rate cuts, and targeted RRR cuts are likely to occur. It is estimated that there will be little room for economic deterioration in the second half of the year, with GDP growth of around 6.2% and annual growth of 6.3. %.
Bank of Communications expects that the mainland’s macroeconomic policies will gradually improve and support economic operations. The effect of tax reduction and fee reduction may be more obvious in the second half of the year; on the external front, a new round of negotiations between China and the United States will help improve demand and expectations. In the third quarter, the counter-cyclical adjustment will be continued. More pre-adjustment and fine-tuning will be carried out according to the economic operation. The policy will be stable and loose, but it will not be greatly relaxed.
Yang Yewei and Zhang Wei, macro analysts of Southwest Securities, believe that although the data in June has improved, from the production perspective, it is mainly due to the release of upstream output. Under the lack of demand, the price of industrial products has fallen behind, and upstream output is difficult to sustain. On the demand side, real estate, export and other demand are facing downward pressure, and infrastructure investment may pick up. However, from the current policy intensity, the rebound rate may be limited, so the economic slowdown pressure still exists, and we expect a stronger and stable growth policy. .