The market continued to worry and the global debt ratio was not low
Except for the US two-year bond interest of the public, which was “upside down” compared to the 10-year period, Germany’s main bond yields also hit new lows. At the same time, the world economy has not improved, and there are more signs of rigidity. It is fearful that the current difficulties will be eliminated by the release of water. The consequences are more worrying than the financial tsunami market in 2008.
The euro zone “one brother” Germany announced last Wednesday that the second quarter of the economy contracted quarterly, as long as this quarter shrinks, it is in line with the definition of recession, so that the country’s 10-year bond has fallen to a record low of -0.72%, and significantly lower The European Central Bank’s benchmark interest rate – 0.4%, reflecting the market is estimating that the central bank will deepen negative interest rates in September. In fact, the country’s 10-year debt has not exceeded one cent since the first four years, and that year was the first year that the European Central Bank introduced negative interest rates. However, in the past five years, the economy has only been able to develop horizontally, and it is now on the verge of recession, reflecting the negative effect of negative interest rates!
On the other hand, although the US 10-year bond yield is still around 1.5%, there is an analysis that if it is included in inflation, the current bond yield is actually -1.2%, the lowest since the 1960s. In addition, the US 30-year-old bond interest rate fell below 2% last week, hitting new lows, reflecting that the market is not optimistic about the future central bank will raise interest rates in the long run. In other words, the global “negative interest rate” is threatening the general trend, and the potential crisis is completely different from that of the eight years. The torment of economic rigidity is no small feat.
Last week, there were data disclosures. After examining 26,000 global companies other than financial institutions, we found that as of last year, companies that could not offset the cost of debt service with operating profit for three consecutive years, commonly known as “zombie companies”, reached 5,300. In the meantime, the proportion is 20%, that is, there is one in every five. In contrast, the economy is only 14% at the bottom of the economy in 2008. It is conceivable that the situation is severe.
Perhaps the term “zombie enterprise” has become commonplace. It is no big deal
However, the situation of relying on “debt debts” has spread to the consumer level. According to statistics, US consumer debt has reached a record high, excluding the largest amount of flats, and the overall debt exceeds 4 trillion US dollars. As the Fed’s situation cuts interest rates again, it will only make Americans who are used to “making money for the future” more indebted and have lower savings rates. As of August 9th, the mortgage refinance indicator, commonly known as “additional credit”, increased significantly by 36.9%, the highest in three years, reflecting that consumers began to use banks to reduce interest rates to borrow money.
The economic situation in the Mainland is also very challenging
It is reported that the top vacancy rate in Shenzhen’s top commercial buildings is 20%, and in some areas it is higher than 50%. Some owners need to rent out to rent out their properties, reflecting that business activities are affected by the global economic slowdown. Very big.
As everyone knows, “debt debts” are behaviors that are exploding sooner or later. At present, the global central bank has rapidly relaxed monetary policy in order to save the economy. However, once it proves that it will help the economy to regain its growth, market confidence will be shaken and debts may fall down. Investors should not underestimate the revelation that debts are getting worse and worse.