Global economy slows down

The American Automatic Data Processing Company (ADP) announced a private position survey called “Small Non-agricultural”

The number of employed people in the company increased by 135,000 in September, the smallest increase in three months, less than the expected 152,000, and new in August. The increase in employment was reduced from 195,000 to 157,000, which aggravated the market’s worries about the US economic recession. Earlier, the American Institute of Supply Management announced a manufacturing index of 47.8, which was not only lower than the 49.1 in August, but also the lowest level since the financial crisis in June 2009. Among them, the export orders fell to 41, since March 2009. The lowest; the recruitment sub-category also fell to 46.3. Reflected in the uncertain trade policy, the US economy still has downward pressure.

On the other hand, ECB President Mario Draghi pointed out that geopolitical uncertainty, increased protectionist threats and fragile emerging markets, the euro zone’s economic outlook is downward

The ECB lowered its forecast for economic growth this year and next year, down to 1.1% this year; next year’s growth forecast is lowered to 1.2%. In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said earlier that the United States and China’s mutual tariffs may drag down the global economic growth of 0.8% next year, and will cause more losses in the next few years.

The global economy slowed down, central banks successively launched loose monetary policy, and the Australian central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% as the market expects to cut interest rates for the third time this year, setting a new record low and reaffirming that it is ready to further develop when necessary. Relax the policy. Earlier, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 0.1% as expected, and the deposit rate was lowered to minus 0.5%, setting a new low record and restarting the volume. From November 1st, the monthly purchase of 20 billion euros of bonds. In addition, the Bank of Japan is considering deepening negative interest rates at the lowest cost to cope with the economic slowdown and global risk. The release of water from central banks has brought support to the financial stock market.

In terms of new shares, Budweiser (1876.HK), which was listed on Monday, has a market capitalization of more than 390 billion yuan

It is supported by the market-related trading activities to support the increase in the number of shares and the rise in stock prices. The two index companies of FTSE and MSCI will be included in the index on October 9 and 16, respectively, and the market expects passive funds to be pursued. In addition, the Hang Seng Composite Index will also be included in Budweiser from October 15. The North Water will start in the middle of this month. It can deploy Budweiser through the Hong Kong Stock Connect. I believe there is still room for speculation in the short term.

In addition, since the introduction of Ya Life (03319.HK) at the end of August, the author’s share price performance has been revived, and it has hit a record high in recent days. Ya Life Services acquired a 60% stake in Zhongmin Property for RMB 1.56 billion. After the completion of the acquisition, it is expected that the overall management area will exceed 500 million square meters, and the size of the pipe area will exceed 220 million square meters of Country Garden Service (06098). The interim net profit of Ya Life rose 63% year-on-year to 540 million yuan, which was better than expected. Revenue for the period was RMB 2.241 billion, an increase of 59.4% year-on-year. Gross profit margin increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 37%. In the first half of the year, the expenditure recorded a significant decline, showing its good cost control, historical P/E ratio of 28.7 times, the valuation is still lower than the 54.7 times of Country Garden service, 41.7 times of Greentown Service (02869) and 48.7 times of China Shipping Property (02669). Still attracting capital inflows.


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