the global stock market performed well last year, but the performance of the Hong Kong stock market was relatively eclipsed
Huang Baning, head of investment strategy and global wealth planning at Citibank, predicts that Hong Kong’s economy will rebound by 0.7% this year and will accelerate to 1.8% next year. It is expected that the volatility of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year will be similar to the second half of 2019 It refers to the hovering between 26,000 and 31,000 points in the first half of the year, but the investment atmosphere will become more tense in the second half of the year. Whether the market outlook can break through or not depends on the second half of the year, because there will be elections in the Hong Kong Legislative Council, Sino-US second-stage trade agreement negotiations, US presidential election.
Citi predicts that China’s economic growth will reach 5.8% this year, and will slow further to 5.6% next year. Huang Baining pointed out that the central government’s continued stimulus policy will support corporate loan demand. It is expected that the central government will continue to adjust the interest rate policy in accordance with economic data and guide the interest rate downward.
Nei Yin inner room look high line
Huang Boning is more optimistic about China banking and China property stocks. He explained that due to the market’s over-anxiety over the domestic silver spread and asset quality, the valuation has been undervalued for a long time, and it is expected that the domestic silver is expected to catch up. Mainland China’s RRR cut will benefit domestic banks, and the quality of domestic banks’ assets is not as bad as the outside world thinks. In addition, the interest rate reform in the mainland will also benefit domestic banks. He believes that the rise of domestic property stocks will continue into this year. The mainland has optimized the property market regulation and control policy, strong sales last year resulted in a solid profit outlook, lower interest rates under high leverage, and high dividend yields.
However, affected by factors such as US interest rate cuts and Hong Kong’s macroeconomic slowdown, he is cautious about Hong Kong bank stocks. Although the industry valuation is cheap, there is no upside catalyst.
As for the fundamentals of China Netcom shares, but the industry shares fluctuate greatly, it is recommended to consider absorption at a lower level when the shares are adjusted.
Looking at the global investment environment, although China and the United States have decided to sign the first-phase agreement on the 15th of this month, Huang Boning believes that this does not mean that it can be relaxed, because from the market’s known content of the agreement, the two parties have largely reached only small-scale issues. Consensus, but this year ’s second and third-phase agreements involve more sensitive issues such as intellectual property rights and corporate entry and exit. The two sides have great differences. Coupled with the year of the US presidential election, disguise has continued political uncertainty. The trade war may escalate again, but Citi expects both sides to work hard to avoid further escalation of tariffs.
Expected gold prices to reach new highs
Citi estimates that the overall profit growth of global companies in 2020 will be 7%, and that global stocks are expected to return between 6% and 8% for the whole year. Investors are advised to be moderately dispersed in global markets and expect higher dividend growth strategies or favorable returns.
In addition, the bank expects that the price of gold is expected to be stronger and more durable. In this cycle, it may rise above $ 2,000 per ounce, setting a record high. He said that lower interest rates and a low interest rate environment are expected to last longer, coupled with trade frictions, geopolitical risks, and record-breaking gold purchases by global central banks, all are favorable for the gold market.