Faced with internal and external worries, the prospects for Hong Kong are full of gloom
The big bank CITIC Lyon expects that Hong Kong’s economy will record negative growth in the next two years, which is negative 0.7% and negative 0.5% respectively. It will not return to positive growth of 2.5% until 2002, not only in the big banks. It is the weakest, and it is the first big bank that expects Hong Kong to have negative economic growth for two consecutive years.
CITIC Lyon Fiswei said that if anyone thinks Hong Kong’s economic prospects are good, it is a naive idea
Reduced overall household expenses
Eric Fishwick, chief economist of CITIC CLSA, said at the forum yesterday that Hong Kong’s economy is currently affected by shrinking household spending and falling exports of services. He bluntly said that if anyone thinks Hong Kong’s economic prospects are good, it is naive. idea.
In addition, he explained that Hong Kong’s diet has a large proportion of local household consumption expenditure. At present, the public’s desire to go out to eat is weak, which has dragged down overall family expenditure. In addition, the mainland media widely reported that the recent demonstrations in Hong Kong will greatly affect Hong Kong’s export of services to the Mainland.
Major banks’ forecasts for Hong Kong’s economy
Recovery speed export next year
He also mentioned that the formation of fixed capital in Hong Kong recorded a double-digit decline in the first half of the year. Under the influence of economic weakening and social conflict, it will lead to economic contraction this year. As for the speed of economic recovery in Hong Kong, it will depend on the level of export growth next year.
In fact, the two major foreign banks, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, also sang in the past month. Hong Kong’s economy will record negative growth this year.
Among them, Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Hong Kong’s economy, stock market and property market prospects. The bank has lowered Hong Kong’s economic growth forecast for the whole year from 1% to minus 0.3%, while estimating the residential buildings in the next nine to twelve months. The price will fall by 10%, and the Hang Seng Index is expected to have a chance to test 21,500 points. As for Deutsche Bank, it is predicted that Hong Kong’s economic growth this year will be 1.5%, down to minus 0.5%.