Bank of Communications International (3329) released its investment outlook for 2020 yesterday, referring to the year of “peak and turn” in 2019, contrary to the general pessimism at the end of last year
China’s economic cycle leading indicators are peaking and are likely to begin to slow in the coming months. Hongye, Managing Director and Head of Research, Bank of Communications International predicts that due to the challenges of Hong Kong’s economic fundamentals and lack of investor confidence, the Mainland market is accelerating its internationalization and attracting foreign investment. The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue to underperform next year. A shares. He went on to point out that next year China ’s economic growth rate is below 6% without much suspense, but the goal of doubling this year is still achievable. China’s inflation uncertainty next year is greater than the uncertainty of economic growth, and the risk of stagnation is also high. As the swine fever in the mainland is being destroyed, the number of pigs on the market is almost equal to that of the entire EU, so inflationary pressures are likely to continue to soar beyond the spring and limit the choice of monetary policy in the short term. In addition, in the next 12 months, the bottom of the trading range of the Shanghai Stock Index is likely to be about 2700.
After Alibaba (9988) returns to Hong Kong for a second listing, will Chinese companies listed in the US return one after another?
Hong Ye said that with the normalization of Sino-US trade frictions, Chinese companies listed in the US are constantly threatened and come back The second listing is a “prepared” decision and a “high probability event”, which is also a good thing for market investors in the same time zone.
Home prices expected to rise 5% to 10%
Xie Yicong, co-director of Bank of Communications International (Real Estate Research), pointed out that with the increase in the ceiling of mortgage loans and the reduction of interest rates, there are signs of recovery in Hong Kong’s property market. At the same time, social unrest and macro uncertainties will continue to crack down on rents and prices for retail and office properties. He predicts that next year the mass residential market price will rise by 5% to 10% and retail property rents will fall by 10% to 25%.