HSI sees 30,000 high next year

CITIC Lyon released the 2020 outlook

The chief strategist Mo Aide predicted at a press conference yesterday that the HSI is expected to reach 29,600-30,000 points next year, with a return rate as high as 10%. Because the bank is very optimistic about the development of emerging markets next year, I believe that the Chinese stock market will give the HSI a lot of room for growth. However, he also emphasized that the storm of amendments and the results of the Sino-US trade negotiations will continue to affect the direction of the Hong Kong market, and the growth of Hong Kong companies will be limited.

Mo Aide analyzed that before June of this year, the MSCI Hong Kong Index showed signs of gradual recovery, but the social impact of the amendments directly dragged its performance

MSCI Hong Kong was about 10% worse than the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (except Japan). Real estate, comprehensive Sex businesses are particularly noticeable. However, due to the unresolved storm, it is estimated that MSCI Hong Kong’s return next year is only about 1% to 2%.

Alibaba effect overseas Chinese stocks are expected to return

Speaking of the return of Alibaba (9988) to Hong Kong, Mo Aide believes that this move is of great significance to Chinese investors. Ali’s listing in Hong Kong will attract the return of other overseas Chinese stocks. In addition, the United States intends to require Chinese stocks listed in the United States to accept the same accounting standards and regulations in the United States, or the idea of ​​returning more Chinese stocks. As the largest e-commerce company in the Mainland, Ali will also directly attract more funds to the south, driving the trading of Hong Kong stocks.

Although the performance of emerging markets this year is not good, and the emerging market earnings per share show a negative growth of 1.2%, Mo Aide believes that next year can be rid of the haze, and its earnings per share growth is expected to be as high as 14%, which is much higher than the 9% growth of developed markets. The bank is more optimistic about markets such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Mainland China, and especially optimistic about mainland e-commerce and consumer industries. It is expected that the MSCI China Index will increase by 15% by the end of next year.


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