Shen Wanhongyuan’s “Quest for the Transformation of Great Powers
Doctrine, Trends, and Strategies —— Macroeconomic Outlook 2020″ report on Wednesday predicts that the internal and external risks facing the Chinese economy will be eased next year. Although the growth rate will pull back slightly, it will still show sufficient resilience. At the same time that consumption indicators improve, the contribution of final consumption will also increase.
Qin Tai observed that the recent Sino-U.S. Trade friction has gradually eased, and the negative impact of the first three batches of tariff lists on China’s exports will gradually weaken
In view of this, China’s exports will improve marginally next year, and the improvement in imports may be even greater. Big. With the recovery of industrial enterprises’ production confidence next year, consumer demand is expected to pick up and investment growth will stabilize.
In addition, China’s economy is expected to take the word “stable” next year, and structural improvements will be carried out subtly. Counter-cyclical policy adjustments will continue to strengthen next year, and the importance of credit to support the real economy will be emphasized (see attached table).
Qin Tai believes that the central bank will only need to cut the benchmark by 100 basis points next year, which is enough to support commercial banks to achieve stable credit expansion at a year-on-year growth rate of about 12%
there is not much room for the central bank to cut interest rates. Qin Tai also expects that the general public budget deficit rate may expand slightly to 3% next year, and the scale of newly added special debt may be 3 trillion to 3.2 trillion yuan. The decision-making level may further support “tax reduction by broad fiscal expansion.” Tools such as fees, consumption subsidies, etc., to increase household income and support household consumption.
He also bluntly stated that the property market regulation in the mainland next year will still adhere to the long-term mechanism to meet endogenous needs. Persist, real estate regulation and control policies will not shift. ”