The Hang Seng Index rose another 412 points yesterday, and even rebounded for two days, earning 766 points, recovering 58% of last week’s decline
After the big battle between the two police forces and the demonstrators, Zhongda and PolyU may think that after this battle, the peak of violent demonstrations has passed, so they entered the market. This is actually hard to estimate. Since the upgrade of the anti-reform movement in June, many things have exceeded everyone’s imagination.
Technically, the medium and long-term trend of the HSI has not confirmed the turning trend
The downward trend since the beginning of last year has continued. There has been a large rebound in the first four months of this year, and then it has repeatedly declined. In addition, although the US stock market has continued to record high in the near future, the trend has slowed down, and the high valuation has made the market only enter the market.
US President Trump met with Fed Chairman Powell on Monday, swearing about dollars, negative interest rates and the Chinese and American economies. When the news came out, the US stock market was excited for a while, expecting the old special to force the Fed to release the water again. By the close of the market, the Dow rose slightly by 31 points.
Many good wishes in the market are based on the first phase of trade agreements between China and the United States, but the US financial channel CNBC quoted Beijing officials on Monday as saying that since Lao Te has indicated that it has no intention to withdraw tariffs on Chinese goods, the Chinese side reached an agreement. Feeling pessimistic. Therefore, China would rather wait and see the progress of the U.S. Congress’s impeachment investigation on Lao Te and the election of the presidential election next year, because he knows what position he will hold in a few months. However, the Chinese side can wait for several months, and the market will meet, and if the new round of tariff increases is implemented as scheduled in mid-December, the stock market will inevitably change face. Therefore, Hong Kong stocks will die and will be revealed at the end of this month or early next month.
Da Mo holds four major enterprises to show bullish
This week’s global stock market rally has something to do with Morgan Stanley’s optimistic research report over the weekend. The report pointed out that at the macro level, as Sino-US trade tensions eased and central banks gradually eased monetary policy, the first quarter of next year will be the first consecutive quarter of global economic slowdown, and the first quarter will resume economic growth. Driven, in the second quarter, business confidence will recover and investment will accelerate.
However, Morgan Stanley warned that this is a small cyclical recovery. The US economic cycle is coming to an end. In the second half of next year, the market will face the risk of a US presidential election and a worsening credit quality of corporate credit. Of course, the biggest risk before us is whether the United States will withdraw the tariffs originally imposed on Chinese goods on December 15. In terms of stock market strategy, Morgan Stanley upgraded its investment rating in emerging markets. The promising stock markets include Brazil, South Korea and Russia. In terms of sectors, the bank suggested moving from defensive and interest-bearing stocks to valuable cyclical stocks. The list of Asian or emerging market focus shares of Morgan Stanley has joined Samsung Electronics, along with Alibaba, Tencent (00700) and TSMC. These four giant companies are listed for the first time since 2017, showing that the bank has launched a bullish mode.
At the end of the US economic cycle, investment must be quick and the market conditions will fluctuate. From 1996 to 1997, and from 2007 to 2008, it was the end of the cycle. The window of mad speculation was only a year and a half. When the mood is very high, it is best to leave quickly.
Big Capricorn Hong Kong stocks, not only predict that the Hang Seng Index will only see 27,500 points by the end of next year, even if it is recommended that customers buy banks and housing stocks, they would rather take Singapore’s similar shares. It is indeed difficult for Hong Kong to have confidence in investors. The core business district has often become a blackout of demonstrations. International conferences are not cancelled or postponed. The political stalemate has not been resolved in a day, and the risk of demonstration turmoil is difficult to disperse.
Hong Kong and Macao
However, the stock price performance shows that the market is not pessimistic, the most severely hit tourism retail industry, the relevant stocks have seen defensive power in recent months. Wharf Real Estate (01997) has the most popular tourist attraction in the harbour city of the mainland. The conflict between the police and the people has become a battlefield. The business of the shopping mall has been hit hard. In the nearly three waves of large-scale conflicts, the stock price of Wharf Real Estate can be kept at the edge of 40 yuan [Figure 2]. It seems that some investors expect that the situation in Hong Kong will resume normal after half a year to nine months. Of course, for the time being, it is not appropriate to expect too much. It is good to be able to hold 40 yuan. If you want to re-emerge, you should wait for it. To buy the stocks of the department, they all pick up the Wharf (00004). Because the main income comes from China, it is innocently affected by the situation in Hong Kong.
When it comes to the impact, everyone thought that the Lijiang River would be stable and the tourists would be in Hong Kong. They would choose to go to Macau to play. They don’t know that they are really Hong Kong and Macao families. Tourists often take Hong Kong and Macao tours as a itinerary, and Hong Kong will also travel alone. Macao. Brokers began to report on the following day, warning that Macau’s gaming revenue this month fell 10% to 13%. Macau is more dependent on tourism than Hong Kong. In the third quarter, Macau’s GDP fell by 4.5%, which is even more severe than Hong Kong. The Lijiang stocks are afraid to go up with the Hong Kong stocks.