Mainland economy expected to slow to 5.7% next year

Nomura’s global head of foreign exchange market strategy Chen Liwei said in a conference call yesterday that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depends mainly on the trend of the Sino-U.S. Trade war

In the US election year, the RMB may rise to 6.9 against the US dollar in the context of uncertain US political and economic situation and weak US dollar index. On the contrary, if the negotiations between China and the United States do not have a good result and the Sino-US trade war is further heated, the RMB may depreciate against the US dollar to 7.2.

Lu Ting, chief economist at Nomura China, predicts that economic growth in the Mainland will drop to 6.1% this year, and will slow further to 5.7% next year

The slowdown in growth was mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of real estate-related investments and the reduction in revenues of local governments due to tax cuts, making it difficult to promote fiscal expansion to boost economic growth.

In addition, the central government’s deficit-to-GDP ratio next year will increase by 0.2 percentage points to 3% from 2.8% this year

in order to promote economic growth, while maintaining moderate growth in credit.


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