After the official manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) of China returned to the expansion range, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, with SMEs as the main survey sample, recorded 51.8 in November, compared with 10 The monthly increase was 0.1 percentage point, which has been rising for five consecutive months
Although the improvement is small, it has been the strongest since 2017. Economists believe that the ideal PMI figures in the Mainland are related to the framework of the first-phase trade agreement reached between China and the United States in October. The news is favorable for the performance of export orders. As China and the United States have many opportunities to reach the first-phase trade agreement, it is expected that China’s manufacturing industry will Activities are expected to keep expanding. The warmer PMI in the Mainland caused Hong Kong stocks to rise by 98 points yesterday to close at 26,444 points with a turnover of 67.2 billion yuan.
Foreign demand improves new export orders continue to increase
The Caixin Think Tank report pointed out that the recent boom has been partially supported by further growth in new business. Although the growth rate of new orders in November was slower than that in October, it still maintained a considerable level. Many manufacturers reported that demand fundamentals have strengthened and overseas demand has also improved. Export sales have rebounded for two consecutive months. New export orders also recorded a month-on-month increase for the first time in more than a year and a half. At the same time, demand has improved, driving manufacturers to expand production.
The employment index in November rebounded significantly from the low level last month, and leapt back to above the line of prosperity and dryness. This is the second employment expansion since March this year.
Business confidence in output outlook still declines
However, despite the increase in output and new orders, companies remain confident in the output outlook for the next 12 months, and November optimism fell to its lowest level in 5 months. The survey shows that about 11% of the surveyed manufacturers expect the output to increase in the next year, but 5% of the manufacturers expect to reduce production, and the companies still worry about the uncertainty of the policy environment and market environment.
In addition, the ex-factory prices of manufactured products continue to fall, and cost pressures remain significant.
Xu Yibin, executive director and chief executive officer of Bright Talent Securities, said that the mainland ’s November PMI figures were better than expected and were the main driving force for the market’s rise. However, the market’s failure to keep up has shown that investors are wary of the market outlook. He pointed out that technically, the HSI must hold the 26,000 mark, otherwise a new wave of adjustment may be launched; but if the market can stabilize, I believe it can gradually rise to the 27,000 level in early December.
Yesterday’s best-performing sector was China property stocks. It is expected that the mainland sales will be strong in November. DMM expects Rundi (1109) to have a 60% to 70% chance of rising share prices in the next 15 days with a target price of 41.15 yuan. The news caused Rundi to soar 4.3%, and Country Garden (2007) and China Overseas (0688) also bounced 2.8% and 2.7% respectively, making the three largest blue-chip gainers all property stocks. Other stocks such as Sunac (1918) and Evergrande (3333) jumped 7% and 6% respectively. Aoyuan (3833) contract sales in November soared 99% and rose 5.2% throughout the day.