The Mainland will release major macro data such as GDP, investment and consumption in 2019 tomorrow
The Institute of Quantitative Economics and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the 2020 China Economic Trends Report. According to the forecast of China’s macroeconomic system model, China’s GDP growth rate in 2020 will be basically the same as that in 2019, maintaining steady and rapid development.
Reuters predicts 5.9% growth this year
The latest quarterly survey by Reuters shows that China is expected to grow by 5.9% for the whole year of 2020, and the People’s Bank of China is expected to reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point in 2020.
The Academy of Social Sciences report predicts that the nominal growth rate of real estate fixed asset investment will be 8.5% this year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 percentage points; infrastructure fixed asset investment growth rate will be 4.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points; manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate It was 2.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage point. Overall, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society was 5.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year.
The report also stated that this year’s policy signals for China to promote economic growth through increased infrastructure construction are clearly visible. At the same time, with the combination of active fiscal policy and sound monetary policy, infrastructure investment will become the main driver of China’s fixed asset investment growth. One of the motivation. Real estate investment was generally stable and maintained a rapid growth.
People’s Bank may lower its level by 1%
In addition, the latest quarterly survey by Reuters shows that China’s economy is expected to grow by 6.1% in 2019, and the quarterly growth rate of GDP in 2020 will show a high and low trend, and it is expected to grow by 5.9% throughout the year; and inflation will gradually decline after peaking in the first quarter. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is expected to increase by 3.1% year-on-year this year. In view of the fact that inflation will not become a clear constraint on monetary policy, and reducing social financing costs is an important goal of this year’s monetary policy, it is expected that the People’s Bank of China will reduce the deposit reserve ratio by one percentage point in 2020, at the end of 11.5%.