Negative factors hinder the property market, fear of ending after the end of the 20 experts, look down on the price of property prices fell 5 to 10% in the second half of the year
The property market rose from the downturn in the first half of the year, and the property price index hit a new high. However, it immediately stopped rising after the summit. The market outlook is being affected by four major factors. The Sino-US trade war is the most crucial. According to an analysis of 20 experts in the newspaper, more than half of them believe that the property market has peaked, and it is 5 to 10% in the second half.
According to the figures of the Rating and Valuation Department, the property prices in the first five months have risen sharply, with a cumulative increase of 10.4%. However, the property market in the second half of the year was mainly affected by four major factors, including: Sino-US trade war, local political turmoil, interest rate changes and housing land supply.
The newspaper has more than half of the opinions of 20 scholars, analysts and real estate agents. It has a reserve of 5 to 10%. The mainstream opinion is that China and the United States have negotiated on trade. Whether it is still possible to reach a consensus is still unknown. In the long run, it will plague the economy and the property market.
The Hong Kong University’s Hong Kong Economic and Business Strategy Study published a research report yesterday, mentioning that Sino-US trade tensions have hit Hong Kong’s consumer sentiment and foreign trade in the first half of this year. Looking ahead, there may be slight improvement in the coming quarter. HKU also lowered its annual economic forecast. 0.5 percentage points to 1.8%.
Zhang Zhichu, Managing Director of Yanliang Consulting and Evaluation, believes that the two countries should not expect a consensus in the short term. The most important thing is that there are several indicators showing that the external economy is unstable, including Bitcoin and gold prices continue to rise, funds are being hedged, and banks in Hong Kong The interest rate continues to rise, which will put pressure on property prices.
More prudent investors, no intention to enter the market
Investors are pessimistic about the property market. They are not interested in buying property in the second half of the year. Investor Wu Longfei pointed out that although the Sino-US restart negotiations can boost the property market in the short term, it is difficult to be optimistic in the long run. Negative news will appear in the fourth quarter, the stock market and the property market will Reversing the downside, property prices will have a 10% drop in the second half of the year.
In terms of interest rates, large banks have recently raised their capping interest by about 0.1%, but the overall low interest rate environment continues, which is a positive factor for the property market. The industry generally believes that the external economic performance will slow down. The development of trade war will affect the Fed’s interest rate cut schedule. It is expected that the US will cut interest rates by one to three times in the second half of the year, ranging from 0.25 to 1%. However, Hong Kong has limited interest rate cuts this year. By the end of next year, there will be a chance to reduce by a maximum of about 0.125%. The interest rate is expected to remain below the low of 2.5%, which still supports the property price.
As regards land supply, the Government has continued to launch tenders for official land in recent years. In the second half of the year, the first-hand market is expected to sell up to 20,000 gangs. With the vacancy tax approaching, it is believed that supply will still be sufficient during the year.
At present, the subsidized housing pricing and private property prices have been decoupled, and the Government adjusted the long-term policy last year to change the ratio of public and private housing to 7 to 3. When the information on the reduction of private land supply is released, the rigid demand will not be reduced, and there is an opportunity to stimulate the price of private buildings.