The policy was firm and the confidence of enterprises rose. Experts expected credit to stabilize
According to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China, the balance of RMB credit at the end of July was 147.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. The growth rate was 0.4 and 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous year and the same period of the previous year. In the same month, the new RMB credit was 1.06 trillion yuan, less than the previous value of 166.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 397.5 billion yuan. In the same period, the social financing scale was 1.01 trillion yuan, estimated at 1.625 trillion yuan, and the previous value was 2.263 trillion yuan. yuan. The analysis said that China’s weak financial data in July showed that the real economy demand was insufficient. However, the growth rate of the social welfare will not fall sharply, and the trend will remain stable, and there may even be room for recovery.
Tao Jin, a researcher at Suning Financial Research Institute, said that the scale of RMB credit in July showed a relatively shrinking trend, indicating that the weak economy has put pressure on financing demand. He continued that the medium and long-term credit of the company continued to be stable last month, but the short-term loans were significantly reduced, reflecting that the pre-operational risks of the enterprises have been released to a certain extent, and the confidence of the enterprises in the medium and long-term prospects has rebounded.
In terms of credit structure, the household sector loan increased by 511.2 billion yuan in July; among them, short-term and medium- and long-term loans increased by 69.5 billion yuan and 441.7 billion yuan respectively. In the same period, non-financial enterprises and government organizations increased by 297.4 billion yuan; of which, short-term loans decreased by 219.5 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 367.8 billion yuan, bill financing increased by 128.4 billion yuan, and non-bank financial institutions increased by 232.8 billion yuan.
Zhao Wei, chief analyst of Changjiang Securities’ macro-receipt, pointed out that “credit is weaker than expected, on the one hand, it is related to the drag of corporate credit, such as the fall in fiscal expenditure, on the other hand, it is tightened by real estate financing, and bills and short-term loans are severely investigated. influences”.
Chen Wei, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Research Center, believes that in addition to seasonal factors, the month-on-month increase in new RMB credits, a significant year-on-year correction, and the credit stratification pressure in the banking system and the increase in the operating pressure of the real economy. Relevant, “At present, credit facilities of some financial institutions are still subject to varying degrees of liquidity.”
Real estate trust financing channels tightened
The data also showed that the social integration scale increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous value of 2.263 trillion yuan, which was 210.3 billion yuan less than the same period of the previous year. According to Tao Jin’s analysis, the decrease in the scale of social financing is mainly related to the simultaneous contraction of “inside” and “off-balance” financing of the banking sector. As corporate financing demand weakens, the bank’s “reluctance to lend” has also warmed up, and real estate The limited access to trust financing has directly led to a significant contraction in the scale of trust financing last month. “The monthly financial data reflects that policy impacts such as “anti-risk” have begun to appear.”
Chen Wei said that last month’s growth rate of social welfare declined slightly, and “off-balance sheet” financing also shrank significantly
In view of the fact that the regulatory authorities have extended the “off-balance sheet” financing clearance period for inventory irregularities, “off-balance sheet” financing has shrunk in the short term. The impact on the growth rate of social growth is temporary.
Looking forward to the future, Tao Jin bluntly said that given that the medium and long-term credit of enterprises continued to be stable last month, the current Chinese economy still has resilience, especially the market confidence is gradually accumulating. He believes that corporate financing demand is expected to gradually pick up. Credit data and social financing scale will still have a “bottoming” factor in the medium and long term. “In the second half of the year, in the “moderately tight” monetary policy and the interest rate marketization process, social welfare The growth rate will not fall sharply. On the contrary, it will continue to move smoothly, and there may even be room for recovery.”
Zhao Wei stressed that the potential risks of the credit environment are rising in the second half of the year, and the growth rate of social welfare may “fall back” around the quarter. It is expected that with the weakening of general financial strength, the fall of real estate, and the gradual emergence of the impact of horizontal contraction, the slowdown in credit growth and non-standard contraction may accelerate, and the growth rate of social financing may have entered a slow decline channel.
Qin Wan, a senior analyst at Shen Wan Hongyuan, reminded that the “external instability factors” facing the Chinese economy have increased, and the endogenous growth momentum of China’s economy still needs to be strengthened. “The central bank will continue to use a variety of structural monetary policies, its core objectives. It is to guide the increase of medium and long-term financing for manufacturing and private enterprises, and further reduce the actual financing rate for small and micro enterprises.”