People’s Bank of China lowers rescue market, releases nearly 900 billion yuan of water 

The People ’s Bank of China suddenly announced yesterday afternoon that it will reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage point from January 6, which is a comprehensive reduction in the nature. addressing the issue of funding for private and SMEs is a top priority

Peng Yan, a Greater China economist at ING International Bank (ING), believes that China will One step is to cut interest rates in the first quarter. Reporter: Yu Bingfeng

The People’s Bank of China said yesterday that the RRR cut will take effect next Monday, and the policy reflects counter-cyclical adjustments, releasing more than 800 billion yuan (nearly 900 billion Hong Kong dollars) in long-term funds, in order to effectively increase the stable funding sources of financial institutions to support the real economy and reduce The cost of funds of financial institutions directly supports the real economy. The People’s Bank of China also pointed out that the RRR cut is beneficial to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and it will continue to implement a stable monetary policy, maintain flexibility and moderation, avoid flooding, and take into account internal and external balance.

Need to address SME funding issues

According to statistics for the whole year of 2019, the People’s Bank of China had previously lowered the quota three times. The last time was September 16. At that time, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was fully reduced by 50 pips, and about 800 billion yuan was released. However, the People’s Bank of China’s third quarter monetary policy report showed that the general loan interest rate was still higher than the level at the end of June, reflecting the cautious attitude of banks in lending, and the cost of capital of mainland enterprises has not been reduced. The PBOC then lowered its LPR by 5 pips in November to strengthen the transmission of monetary policy and directly help companies reduce financing costs. At that time, the market had speculated that the People’s Bank of China would once again lower its standards.

Looking forward to China’s subsequent deployment, Zhou Hongli, a senior economist at DBS Bank (Hong Kong), believes that the downward pressure on the mainland economy has not changed, and most of the additional tariffs imposed by the United States continue to be implemented, which will continue to put pressure on companies, especially exports, and it is expected that there will be three cuts this year. . The People’s Bank of China announced earlier that LPR for all loans can effectively reduce the cost of funds, but the structural problem of blockage of monetary policy has not been resolved. Solving the funding problem of private enterprises and SMEs is the top priority. Fiscal policy is dominated by infrastructure investment. Wang Liangxiang, managing director of DBS Hong Kong Treasury Market, analyzed that the second round of Sino-US trade talks may be more difficult than the first round. At this time, the RRR cut indicates that the central government still feels a sense of worry, and the target of economic growth is not as expected. low.

Peng Wei pointed out that at the beginning of the year, the demand for bank lending is high, and increasing liquidity can reduce upward pressure on interest rates. It is expected that the annual tax cuts and infrastructure investment in the Mainland will reach 2 trillion yuan each, accounting for about 3% of mainland GDP. Peng believes that the mainland ’s interest rate reduction motivation in the short term is quite large, because even if China and the United States signed the first-phase trade association, the United States still has a considerable amount of additional tariffs that have not been withdrawn, and many factories and supply chain exports in the mainland are still under pressure. After the agreement, the market stood idly by.

It is expected that the People’s Bank of China will lower its standard within the year

The Lunar New Year began on January 25. Peng Yue pointed out that at this time it caused trouble to policy makers, because it was difficult to judge that the market had the most intense lending activities before and after. If the RRR cut in January and the interest rate cuts were superimposed, at this time, However, the borrowing market is not at its peak. As a result, lending rates have not shown a high level, and interest rates will become too accommodative. “Unless the authorities want to lower the interest rate of borrowers in January,” the rate of interest rate cuts this month is “half and a half”. , But the probability of interest rate cuts in the first quarter was more than 90%. Lin Junhong, head of the Treasury Research Department of Shanghai Commercial Bank, predicts that the authorities will reduce the overall or targeted twice twice a year, each time by 50 pips, and cooperate with two interest rate cuts to ensure the target of 6% economic growth.


Main page                                                                                                 Next page

發佈留言

發佈留言必須填寫的電子郵件地址不會公開。 必填欄位標示為 *