Hong Kong stocks reversed last week and strengthened on Friday
The Hang Seng Index rose nearly 1% in a single day. There is a “double-day turn” in technology, which means that the two consecutive trading days are higher than the previous two trading days. The lowest position is wide and the turnover increases. However, if you look closely at the macro situation, the market outlook is still worrying.
Xinhe Real Estate Trend
First of all, the technical index has not yet received a reset of 25,782 points of 10 antennas, the index must be above the above position, the market can be stable; take a step back, the strength of the HSI is basically based on technical factors, constant Refers to the 14-day RSI in the first half of August, basically all in the oversold state of 30 or less, among which there are several trading days, the RSI fell below 20, this situation has never been seen in the past, at least not seen in the past 5 years .
On the other hand, if the HSI appears in the form of May, the RSI will continue to be rampant at 30, and the index will go down gradually, which will be more damaging to investors’ will, and the atmosphere based on economic pessimism is expected to continue to be reflected in the investment market. On the other hand, the probability of this situation is not small.
At present, the worst situation facing the macro economy is the issue of investor confidence. Basically, the entire market has also seen that central banks are only loose, but at the same time, US Treasury bonds, the yen, and even gold are breaking through. It shows that there is a strong risk aversion, but taking a step back, it reflects that investors have gradually refused to believe that loose monetary policy is good for the economy. This loss of confidence will make the economic outlook more pessimistic at any time.
I have a strong test of 14.5 yuan
In terms of individual stocks, real estate stocks are still preferable in the medium and long term. Despite the fall in the property market, there have been no strong reasons for the property market to fall. At least the banks have increased their interest rates moderately, the unemployment rate has not risen, and the interest rate in the future is still at a low level. Xinhe Real Estate (00083) regained 10 antennas last week and showed a double-day turn. The larger market is better. In the past, the share volatility was larger than that of other real estate stocks. The rebound market value was high, and the initial resistance was 50 yuan at 12.8 yuan. If the market conditions match, it can be expected to be 14.5 yuan, and the stop-loss reference can be set at 10.5 yuan.