Practicing water prudently

US Secretary of Commerce Ross predicted that the chances of the US-China first-stage trade agreement were very high, causing the top three indexes of the US stock market to break the top, and the Dow rose above the 28,000 mark

On the 16th, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He should talk to US Trade Representative Wright Heze and Finance Minister Nuchin for the second time in the month. The official media said that “the two sides had a constructive discussion around their respective core concerns of the first phase agreement.” However, compared with the first due call on this round of negotiations on November 1, the press release lacked the “consensus of principle”. Despite this, the news should be positive for A and H shares.

The current world situation, as depicted in Mao Zedong’s poems, “the sea is full of clouds and water, and the five continents are turbulent

During the meeting of the leaders of the BRICS in Brazil, Xi Jinping rarely issued the “strongest voice” to stop the riots in Hong Kong. He returned to Beijing on the 17th. Will he ask for speedy implementation and “effectiveness” on his instructions, especially On Sunday (24th), Hong Kong has a district board election, which will have a certain impact on both China and Hong Kong.

For A-shares, the series of data released in the last two weeks have highlighted the current “swine inflation” pressure, and the downward pressure on the economy is still large. The node that will see whether the central bank will “rate interest rate reduction” or lower the RRR will come on Wednesday (20th), because the LPR (loan market pricing rate) monthly bidding mechanism is carried out on the same day, and the interest rate and MLF (interim loan convenience)” hook up”.

Since the central bank last Friday (15th) carried out the second 200 billion yuan (RMB) of the first-month MLF operation in the month, it not only locked in the full-time open market operation of the whole month in advance; meanwhile, the central bank on November 5 Unexpectedly, the one-year MLF rate was lowered by 5 basis points. Although the downward pressure on the economy has been confirmed, it also indicates that the LPR quotation on Wednesday will be expected to lower the interest rate by at least 5 basis points.

The results of the LPR quotation on Wednesday are believed to reflect the central bank’s orientation towards fourth-quarter inflation and counter-cyclical monetary policy to some extent

If only the MLF “squatting” is lowered by 5 basis points, it reflects that the central bank is still highly vigilant about “puffed up”; if the reduction is as much as 10 basis points or more, it indicates that the regulatory authorities should provide “ammunition” for bank lending, the largest behind The purpose is to “release water” to stimulate the economy and make the annual GDP growth rate “guarantee 6” successful. However, beware of the fact that, although the possibility is very small, if the LPR interest rate maintains the status quo, I believe that A shares will bear the brunt of the shock.

When all parties expect that there will be no suspense in the fourth LPR quotation reduction on Wednesday, why are there still a small number of people in the market worried about “no interest rate cuts”? The reason is that the central bank’s third-quarter monetary policy implementation report released on the 16th acknowledged that “the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase”, but on the one hand, it said that it will strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment (in short, there will be a reduction in The interest rate cut, also known as “resolutely not flooding the water”, also refers to the current “no basis for sustained inflation or deflation.”

However, when the words turned, they stressed that “it is necessary to be alert to the inflation expectations.” More importantly, at the time of the downward pressure on the economy, he reiterated that “the real estate is not a means of stimulating the economy in the short term”. At the same time, he also reiterated the primary purpose of the “three major tasks” proposed by Xi and Li this year: “Prevent the precautions Resolve major financial risks and fight hard.”

The central bank’s long-term policy orientation has made it difficult for the market to figure out what the center of gravity is, or continue to cross the river by feeling the stones. However, since the price of live pigs has been slightly reversed in the past two weeks, the official announcement of important progress in the research of African swine fever virus has created conditions for the development of new vaccines. Relevant news and the latest statement from the central bank, I believe that the stock price of pork concept stocks will continue to be suppressed, while the vaccine concept stocks will soar.

In addition, this week, 15.51 billion restricted shares will be lifted. The market price is about 148.5 billion yuan, which is the second largest lifting week in the year. Among them, Shanghai Bank, China Life Insurance, Kailaiying and Buchang Pharmaceutical The market value of the lifting of the ban is as high as 59.4 billion, 36.4 billion, 13.9 billion and 11.5 billion yuan respectively. It is believed that this will put some pressure on the market.


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