New pneumonia continues to spread
As the number of rashes in Hong Kong rises, the situation seems to have deteriorated. At the time of writing, a friend sent me a leaflet of second-hand real estate at the “Wuhan price” and asked if property prices would plummet. To put it simply, last year’s social events really impacted the entire Hong Kong system, and the impact was far greater than the current epidemic situation. However, the decline in property prices during the period was still a single digit, and the year-on-year record increase showed that the fundamentals of local housing are very steady.
Readers are familiar with the factors such as the lower completion volume of new buildings than the growth in demand, low interest rates and abundant market funds, and it will be difficult to reverse in the next few years
What is different from last year is whether the epidemic will hit the economy, especially the Mainland, whether it will be greater than expected. First of all, GDP growth in the first quarter will definitely be lower than 6%, and retail and consumption related data will be even worse. However, if new pneumonia is controlled within the next two months, the blow will only be limited to 3 to 4 months.
On the other hand, many mainland enterprises have extremely high debts
If the economy has fallen sharply, it will be difficult to support even just a few months. This is the risk. Fortunately, the People ’s Bank of China has clearly “watered”. Will only strengthen. Although this epidemic exposed the weaknesses of the Mainland system, it has not changed the fundamental direction of economic development. Even if local property prices are affected, it will be slight for the time being. The author is an executive director of Zhongyuan Securities and Asset Management.