Looking at the property market, rents continue to stabilize

The school day on September 2 has just passed

The “long" summer vacation has also come to an end. Of course, everyone understands that the summer vacation in the past is definitely quite extraordinary in the summer. A storm of anti-reforms has evolved into a series of social activities. And it is getting worse and worse, the situation is worrying, and the Sino-US trade disputes are still not ending, making the local economic environment quite severe, and the property market atmosphere naturally becomes a wait-and-see.

Hong Kong is in the midst of “the autumn of many things"

The buyer’s mentality has naturally become a wait-and-see attitude. Some buyers have chosen to suspend their entry into the market. In fact, the overall second-hand trading has fallen for four months. Last month, the number of second-hand registrations has fallen below 3,000. It is believed that the number of registrations will fall further this month. At the same time that second-hand trading has decreased, property prices have once again peaked. According to the figures of the Government Rating and Valuation Department, the overall property price index has started to fall in June this year. In the two-month losing streak, although the cumulative decline was only 0.7%, as the figures are often lagging behind, in fact, the decline in individual regions has reached 5% to 8%.

Property prices have begun to fall, what about the rental market? Three months ago, when the summer started, the author once said, “How much does the rent increase this summer?

" Because the rental market is very prosperous during the summer vacation from June to August each year, the rent increase in many areas is also significant because of the summer vacation. During the peak season of the rental season, a group of parents will often move to the children who are about to enter the school during the summer vacation. At the same time, they will join the Mainland students who have come to Hong Kong for further studies and even the “Hong Kong Drift" who will stay in Hong Kong for further employment.

In the end, “the number of rents in the summer vacation will rise a lot?" At this stage, it will inevitably be difficult to “pay the bills". The Department of Health has not yet announced the latest rental index for the latest August, but overall, the rental transactions in the past summer vacation are still booming. Even though a number of large new flats have been in the past few months, the supply of rentals has increased. However, the overall rental level has remained stable. In addition, according to the figures of the Department of Health and Welfare, the overall rental index has risen for five months, but only during the period. About 2.8%.

In fact, according to the figures of the Rating and Valuation Department, the overall rental trend has been stable in the past 10 years and the past 25 years. The trend of the rental index has been stable, and the change is far lower than the trend of property prices. According to the calculation of the rental index, the overall rent increase in the past 10 years was 98.5%, while the increase in property prices during the period was as high as 2.1 times. This is not the case. In the past 25 years, the cumulative increase in rents was only 60.1%, but the increase in property prices was close to 2.5. Times.

In other words, in the long run, the overall rent change is basically in line with inflation. The rent change may not be affected too much by the market conditions. Moreover, as the market conditions fluctuate, the buyer’s mentality is naturally more wait-and-see, and the purchase of rent will continue to increase. I believe the future. The rent will continue to rise steadily.

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