For exporters, 2019 is a difficult year. The Sino-U.S. Trade war has begun for more than a year
As the scope of taxation has been expanding, Hong Kong’s exports have been hit hard, especially those that focus on the U.S. market and are unable to use peripheral equipment factories in China. Small and medium-sized enterprises can only run bleakly, watching orders churn. The TDC predicts that Hong Kong’s exports will fall by 4% this year, but the chairman of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Small and Medium Business Chamber of Commerce Chao Guoming is expected to fall by 10%, while the US-based SMEs will see a 20% drop in their business. Looking forward to next year, the TDC expects exports to fall by 2%, but in the worst case, it may fall by 5% to 6%. Grand Duke
Talking about the export situation of Hong Kong this year, when Chao Guoming and the chairman of the Hong Kong Shippers’ Committee Lin Xuanwu accepted an exclusive interview with the Ta Kung Pao, they all agreed that business was difficult. Mainly due to the trade war dragging down the global economy, in addition to the weakness of the US market, other markets also performed poorly. In fact, Hong Kong ’s exports fell by 5.1% in the first 10 months of this year, and fell by as much as 13.2% to the United States. This has caused many American-dominated companies to plunge in business, and the situation of many SMEs is the worst. There are only factories in the Mainland, and there is not enough human and financial resources to set up factories overseas. If you do not choose to transform or find other ways, the days will only be more difficult.
this year’s SMEs are very difficult. Since the outbreak of the trade war, U.S. tariffs have been frequent
When the initial tariff was 10%, Hong Kong businessmen shared with buyers. With the devaluation of the RMB, Hong Kong businessmen barely survived. However, when the tariff rose to 15% or even 25%, the buyer immediately stated that he could not bear the tariff and asked Hong Kong companies to set up factories outside the Mainland as soon as possible. Otherwise, they would gradually reduce their orders when they found suitable suppliers. “When opening a factory in ASEAN, the land price, equipment, decoration, etc. add up to at least tens of millions of yuan, but the gross profit margin of the foundry has fallen to a few cents (%). Many people know the future, and many manufacturers are over half a year old. If they want to take risks again, they can only be a monk for one day. ”
The lightest toy in ready-made clothes is smooth
Among many industries, Chao Guoming pointed out that the clothing industry has hit the hardest, mainly because buyers are more likely to find suppliers in other regions, especially the rapid development of the garment industry in the ASEAN region in recent years, coupled with the fierce competition in this industry, and the wages in the mainland in recent years. Costs such as environmental protection requirements continue to rise, and when buyers are asked to share tariffs, many Hong Kong companies are unable to cope with it and have to let their orders go for nothing. Others in the industry estimate that some garment manufacturers with factories in the mainland only lost 20 to 30% of their orders this year, and some even reduced by half or more.
As for the toy industry, Lin Xuanwu estimates that due to the weak global economy, Hong Kong companies generally have a flat business this year, but it is difficult to challenge other regions for the time being, mainly because China is a large toy production country. About 80% of the world ’s toys are produced in China. More importantly, It is the world ’s major toy brand companies that have a large market share. These companies guarantee a stable supply of goods and fewer suppliers. At present, most toy factories are still in the Mainland. The industrial chains in other countries cannot compete with the Mainland. Therefore, it is expected that the business of Hong Kong’s toy industry should be stable this year.
US elections increase market uncertainty annually. In addition, according to the Bureau ’s export index survey conducted in mid-November, Hong Kong exporters are more pessimistic about major industries and markets. The export index was 18.8, a record low, 3.5 points lower than the previous record of 22.3 points in the fourth quarter of 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis. The survey results also show that 65% of Hong Kong exporters surveyed expect total sales to decline in the coming year, while weakening global demand (37% of respondents choose) has exceeded the Sino-US trade friction (32%), becoming Their biggest concern for short-term development.
Talking about the situation next year, Lin Xuanwu said that although China and the United States have reached a consensus on the text of the first phase of the trade agreement, for most SMEs, it is definitely a good news. Unfortunately, the US hostility to China has continued to increase. Before the formal signing of the agreement, it is still full of variables. Even if the agreement is signed, Trump’s unreliable character says that change will change, so at this stage, it can only be said that only a cautious and optimistic attitude will be maintained in doing business next year. Guan Jiaming, research director of TDC, said that the next election in the United States, coupled with the spread of protectionism into the broader economic and geopolitical areas, means that Sino-US disputes and other trade conflicts will be difficult to completely resolve, and the global economy will fall into a serious situation. The risk of a sustained slowdown is also increasing. It is expected that Hong Kong’s exports will fall by 2%, but it is not the economic factors that affect the overall situation. It is dominated by political factors. In the worst case, exports may fall by 5-6% next year.