After the end of the year, the Hong Kong dollar interest rate (HIBOR) maintained a high level, driving the remittance of Hong Kong dollar to the strong side
Chen Mingqiao, head of financial markets business at Standard Chartered Asia Pacific, said that mainly because of the recent multiple new stock raisings to boost the demand for Hong Kong dollars, the new stock boom and the Chinese New Year are expected After the holidays, the interest rate will fall somewhat, but because the social atmosphere in Hong Kong is still unstable, there is still a certain risk premium for the Hong Kong dollar interest rate. In the future, Hong Kong interest rates will continue to be higher than the US interest rate, which will induce investors to sell dollars to buy Hong Kong dollar arbitrage. The Hong Kong dollar remained strong.
HIBOR dropped across the board yesterday
With multiple new stocks completing fundraising at the same time, HIBOR dropped across the board yesterday, with overnight interest rates falling by 0.27% to 1.12143%; HIBOR fell by 0.16% to 1.54833% in one week; the one-month interest rate linked to the mortgage also softened by 0.06%. To 1.89071%. HKEX softened slightly from last week’s strongest at 7.7624 and yesterday’s strongest saw 7.7708.
the strong momentum of Hong Kong interest rate will cool down slightly, but still maintain a high level
He explained that because the US dollar is linked to the Hong Kong dollar, if there is market instability in Hong Kong, liquidity will be tight, making Hong Kong dollar interest rate risky. Premium, and when the Hong Kong-US interest rate difference reaches 80 basis points to 100 basis points, there will be incentives for carry trades, which will become a strong supporting factor for Hong Kong exchange rate.
In addition, Chen Mingqiao expects that the US interest rate will remain unchanged this year, while the growth momentum in Asia is greater than that in mature markets. It has the opportunity to attract funds to Asia, and the Hong Kong dollar has been sought after.
He continued that if there were more US-listed Chinese-funded companies returning to Hong Kong to raise funds, there would be huge demand for Hong Kong exchanges, and Hong Kong’s interest rate would become strong. For the whole year, if there were no large-scale new fund raising factors, Hong Kong exchanges would be at 7.79 to 7.83. The rise and fall are more reasonable.
Social events in Hong Kong have lasted for 7 months. Chen Mingqiao believes that the impact on Hong Kong’s financial market will be slight. The haze of the Sino-US trade war will even hurt the atmosphere of the investment market and therefore companies will have more hedging needs.