The stock market has already recovered in winter

The A and H shares rose together yesterday, and the “starting point” of the last month of this year, but unfortunately, the data shows that the state-owned enterprise index will rise on the first day of December, and the chances of falling throughout the month are great

Businessmen generally praised the performance of A and H shares next year, and JP Morgan Chase also joined to sing the market next year.

The mainland stock market rebounded yesterday after falling for three consecutive days. Unfortunately, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose to 3854 points and rose 7 points to close at 3836 points. The Shanghai Composite Index was restricted by 2888 points and rose only 3 points to close at 2875 points. The component index rose 23 points to 9,605. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share indices accounted for only RMB340 billion. As for the rebound of the state-owned enterprise index yesterday, it rose 62 points or 0.6% throughout the day to close at 10363 points, but the high and low volatility was only 55 points, and the turnover fell to 19 billion yuan. The red chip index rose 45 points or 1% to close at 4,207 points, with a turnover of 4.2 billion yuan.

Foreign sources quoted a source who pointed out that the Sino-US trade talks had stalled because of a bill involving Hong Kong, but had no impact on the market yesterday, or the sharp decline on Friday had reflected the negative factors, but note that the renminbi has not appeared for several days The rapid devaluation phenomenon is rampant. I believe that the Sino-US trade talks are not as bad as market rumors. Instead, the author believes that the central government borrowed the Hong Kong bill and first opened up to US non-governmental organizations to wait for the US response. In fact, based on past foreign news, China-US trade talks are about whether to cancel the tariff increase in the United States and whether China is willing to continue to buy American agricultural products in black and white. It should be possible for one party to make a concession to solve the problem. The first phase agreement was reached before. It ’s just that the performance of A-shares is unsatisfactory. Even if it rebounded yesterday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange appeared in the “sex with six tops” pattern. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Indexes were in the form of “flying pigeons homing”. It is currently at 3876 points and 2898 points respectively) is the first resistance point of the rebound, then 20 antennas (now at 3905 points and 2917 points respectively), that is, after the A-share rebound, there is still a good chance to find the bottom again. 3800 points and 2850 points are Shanghai and Shenzhen Index and Shanghai Stock Exchange support.

The country’s index is waiting for the end of the year

As for the H-Share Index, the situation is similar to that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Yesterday, it also rebounded and appeared in Rokko, but it was similar to the Rokko in the November when it fell below the 250 antenna (now at 10721 points), which is the bull-bear boundary. It was a big black candlestick after the gap fell and rebounded on the day of the day. If the national index fell within the day according to the current trend and decline, the 10,000-point mark will be seen at any time, that is, the dense area I expected is 10061 points. It will easily fall to 10250 points. Even in response to the rebound in Rokko, the 100-day and 50-day antennas (now at 10430 and 10483 points respectively) are the first resistance levels, and then the falling gap is 10530 points to 10478 points. Unless there is significant positive news, in terms of yesterday’s stalemate, which seems to be waiting for this year’s furnace, this month is a soft pattern.

The author only pointed out last week that according to the data of the past 19 years, the national index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange have mixed in December, that is, this month is a light and weak pattern of competition, but yesterday, the first trading day in December, rose, but he was wary of this month. . Because the data of the past ten years showed that there were seven starters in December, yesterday’s rise at a 70% rise rate was within expectations. The only problem is that the first day of opening is red. After seven years of opening, it has fallen for six months throughout the month. Therefore, the first opening of yesterday has a 85% chance of falling this month. The only time after the first opening of the red rose to the end of the month. Baxian, reflecting that the index is in a strong position and can rise to the end; however, after the country ’s index started off, it fell throughout the month. It fell between 1% and 5.5% in December of the six years. Now the month is down, and it is not excluded to see 10198 points. Until 9785, only when China and the United States reach a trade agreement or the Central Government “expects” at a later Central Economic Work Conference, will there be a chance to reverse the weakness, otherwise this month will be dangerous!

Brokers still hold AH shares next year

Although this month is full of uncertainty, the author is on the brink. Brokers are still optimistic about the performance of A and H shares next year. In addition to the previous MSCI China Index ’s target of 85 points to 93 points, a potential increase of 7.6% to 18%, JP Morgan Chase also joined the ranks of optimism. MSCI China’s index at the end of next year is 92 points, with a potential increase of 16%. The expected high and low are 103 points and 72. In terms of the daily closing price, the potential decline is less than 9%, but the potential increase is 30%. The bank believes that the strategy for the next few quarters should be changed from defensive stocks to cyclical stocks. The preferred sectors are interior housing, industry, cement, etc., as well as sectors that have strong fundamental factors to support and growth potential, and strong earnings prospects, such as healthcare. , Insurance, e-commerce, etc., the preferred stocks are Alibaba (09988, BABA US), China Life (02628), Vanke Enterprise (02202), Angang Steel (00347), and WuXi Bio (02269), while avoiding BYD (01211) and Shanghai Petrochemical (00338). If the A and H shares will be better next year, if the market appears to be readjusted at the end of this year, you may consider overweight or entering the market. You can consider Moto ’s preferred stock. The author originally planned to buy R & F Real Estate (02777) last Friday, but encountered a large Look at the strategy, wait and see first, the stock price rebounded immediately yesterday, because the stock price held 250 antennas (now at 13.1 yuan), back to 10 antennas (now at 13.3 yuan) to buy 2,000 shares.


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