Strong hands, second-hand quiet, may reverse in the coming year

At the moment of writing, it is the last day of 2019

2019 is over and 2020 is approaching. As stated last week, 2019 is a very difficult year. Social events continue to bring the overall retail market into a cold winter. The local economy has also fallen into recession, but considering the overall transaction volume of the property market in 2019, according to the Land Registry records, the overall residential transaction volume can actually go up against the market, becoming a record of “surprising surprise” in the property market last year.

Of course, everyone also understands that the overall residential transaction volume can rise against the market last year, mainly due to the substantial increase in the first-hand new transaction volume in the first half of 2019. According to the Land Registry records, a total of approximately 21,000 transactions, a year-on-year increase of about 36.7%, and a 15-year high of more than 20,000 transactions since 2004, and accounting for nearly 60% of them in the first half of the year, involving a total of about 12,500, a significant year-on-year increase. Increased by 61.3%.

At the same time that the first-hand transaction has increased significantly in 2019, the number of second-hand transactions has continued to fall

The number of second-hand registered cases in the whole year is about 41,500, which is about 4.1% lower than the 43288 cases in the whole year of 2018. Under the precious situation, the overall residential transaction volume in 2019 can rise against the market. A total of about 62,500 transactions were recorded throughout the year, which is only about 59,000 transactions compared with the whole year of 2018, an increase of about 6%.

In the past year, the number of new-hand transactions increased significantly

At the same time, the second-hand transaction continued to be quiet. The “first-hand, strong second-hand” layout became more obvious. Among them, the proportion of new-hand transactions increased to a new high since 2003. Level, the proportion of first-hand transactions in 2019 is as high as 33.6%, which is a significant increase from 26.7% in 2018.

However, after the government earlier relaxed the ceiling on mortgage insurance property prices, 80% of properties under 10 million yuan can be borrowed, and first-time home buyers can purchase 8 million yuan with 90% of mortgages. The overall second-hand transaction volume has rebounded. It is believed that the layout of “first-hand and strong second-hand” may have reversed. Of course, the overall property market trading in the coming year also depends on overall economic changes and whether social events will tend to ease.

However, you should also note that the calculation is based on the Land Registry registration. Therefore, there are about 2,000 first-hand transactions, which are transactions that were signed in December 2018. Based on the registration date, they are 2019 transactions. According to the calculation of the first-hand residential property sales information network, about 19,000 units were sold in the overall first-hand market in 2019, and the year-on-year increase narrowed to only 22%.


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