Traditionally, September and October are the harvest seasons for agriculture
While farmers earn income in the autumn harvest, their consumer sentiment has also been brought up. This has made this period of consumption peak, and the term “Golden September and Silver 10” has emerged. . At present, the real estate industry is one of the beneficiary industries in the financial industry or the auto industry. The Mainland real estate developers also generally choose to start selling new flats in September and October. The increase in the sales volume in the month has also made the phenomenon of “Golden September and Silver 10” more obvious. However, will the “Golden September and Silver 10” effect in the Mainland real estate market still occur this year?
The price increase of major cities slowed down
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the price index of 70 cities in the Mainland. In August, the sales prices of new homes in the four first-tier cities rose by 0.3% month-on-month, the same as in July, and increased by 4.2% year-on-year. The month fell by 0.1 percentage points. Second-hand housing sales prices were flat on a monthly basis, compared with a year-on-year decline of 0.2%, the first decline since June 2018. The situation in second- and third-tier cities is similar. The monthly sales growth rate of new commercial housing in August was 0.5% and 0.7% respectively. The growth rate of third-tier cities was the same as that in July, while the growth rate of second-tier cities was down by 0.2 percentage points.
According to Reuters data, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual growth rate of new homes in 70 major cities in August was 8.8%, the smallest increase in the past 10 months, and a sharp drop of 0.9% from the 7.7% increase in July. Percentage points. All signs show that the mainland property market is still facing cooling, which also reflects the central government’s regulation of the real estate market is still tightening.
The intensity of regulation and control is increasing
In fact, in order to stabilize property prices in the Mainland, the number of property market regulation in the second quarter was much higher than that in the first quarter. According to market statistics, the number of real estate control policies in the first quarter of the Mainland was only 104, and it entered the second quarter. The number of times increased to 147 times, up 43 times quarter-to-quarter. The number of adjustments in June was 46, up from 41 in May. All kinds of data show that the central government is not satisfied with the property price of real estate in the Mainland, and the density and intensity of regulation are still increasing.
According to the central government’s attitude towards the real estate industry, this year’s “golden nine silver ten” market seems to be no longer. In July of this year, the Central Political Bureau meeting once again proposed that the house should be used for housing, not for the positioning of speculation, and will implement the long-term management mechanism of real estate, and will not use real estate as a short-term stimulus to economic means. After the April meeting, I reiterated the positioning of “staying and not speculating”. On the other hand, in the past, when the economy experienced a downward trend, the central government will introduce tax breaks or credit support to promote housing consumption, and the results of economic benefits have been remarkable. However, the second meeting proposed that it would not rely on real estate for short-term stimulus. Further declines in the market’s expectations for policy support for real estate heating.
Of course, the real estate market is still one of the important economic pillars in the Mainland. The central purpose of the central government is only to stabilize housing prices rather than suppress housing prices. It can be expected that in the mid-line, unless there is a major change in the macroeconomic or external environment, the mainland real estate market There will still be a long-term trend.