Experts’ vision: October, the market is afraid to wave again

On the last trading day of September, the Hang Seng Index was comforting

The market opened slightly lower. After seeing the low of 25,786, it rebounded, not only regaining 26,000 points, but also seeing more than 26,100 points. Finally, the Hang Seng Index rose 367 points in September. The full-month volatility was 1,868 points. Compared with the 2,854 points in August, the volatility in September was fine, but it still belongs to the more volatile month of the year.

Before the 11th holiday, the Hang Seng Index rebounded on the last trading day of September. Of course, it is worthy of being happy. However, while entering the Mainland to close the market, it is expected that the turnover of Hong Kong stocks will become quiet and the big players will be more likely to dance lower. In fact, the Hang Seng Index has the largest volatility in October last year and is also the lowest in the year. Last year’s low of 24,540 points, the high and low volatility of up to 3,176 points, compared with September, fell 2,808 points, or about 10.1%. Investors should remain vigilant in October this year. The global market will once again be in full swing in October. Sino-US trade consultations, Brexit and Fed meeting meetings, etc., can be said to be shocking.

People’s livelihood services are still affected

Fortunately, the mainland’s September economic data has not been dragged down by the additional tariffs imposed by China and the United States in September. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in September was 49.8%, better than market expectations. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month; the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 48.6% and 48.8%, respectively, up 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points. The overall improvement of large, medium and small enterprises was unexpected.

There are two pieces of data worth paying attention to

First, the new order index was 50.5%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and rising above the critical point, indicating that the order quantity of manufacturing products has increased; the purchase volume index was 50.4%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The activity has once again expanded and has returned to the level of July. The new orders and purchase volume index directly reflect the business situation of the company, and the data reflects that the economic situation has not yet reached a recession.

On the other hand, the national non-manufacturing business activity index for September is still good. The index was 53.7%, slightly lower than the 0.1 percentage point last month. In the industry, the service industry business activity index was 53%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of the air transport industry, postal industry, Internet software information technology services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and other industries was above 58%. However, it should be noted that the accommodation industry, catering industry, real estate industry, and residential service industry are in a contraction, and the economic power related to people’s livelihood is indeed affected. Investors should guard against relevant sectors.

In the HSI trend, the past month was subject to the 10-week moving average of the weekly chart (ie 26,299), supported by the 250-week line (25,600).


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