Will the property market be worse in the fourth quarter?

A series of social incidents caused by the anti-reforms turmoil has made the overall social atmosphere quite tense, and the Sino-US trade dispute has been entangled for more than a year, and the global economic outlook has become sluggish for various reasons

Both of them have made the property market worse in the past quarter. In the fourth quarter, the anti-masking law has just been implemented. The social atmosphere has warmed up and the property market has almost stopped. It seems that the situation in the next season is even worse than the third season in the past.

With the local economy already on the verge of recession, the first quarter of the past can be described as “shares fall", and the decline is even more severe than the second quarter

In the third quarter, the Hang Seng Index said that it was below a wave, from the beginning of July to 29,000. At the point level, it fell to less than 26,000 points in the past, with a cumulative decline of more than 3,000 points to 10.4%. Compared with the second quarter, the HSI only dropped back by about 800 to 900 points.

The economic outlook has been declining, and the stock market has continued to fall. Buyers have become cautious in entering the market. As a whole, second-hand trading has become quiet. According to the statistics of the Land Registry, in the third quarter, the second-hand registrations fell to the whole quarter. Only 8357 transactions were recorded, a sharp drop of 42% compared with the 14400 cases in the second quarter. In fact, the monthly second-hand registrations have fallen for five consecutive months. I believe that the fourth quarter of the future will definitely fall further. It fell to a low of nearly 6,000 in recent years.

With the second-hand trading decline for five months, the performance of the first-hand property market has been relatively stable. After three months of continuous decline in the total sales volume of the first-hand sales market, it has finally stabilized in the last month, and the transaction record of the residential property sales information network has been received. According to statistics, a total of 1,392 new units were sold last month, a slight increase of 6% compared with the 1312 in August. However, only 4059 new units were sold in the third quarter, compared with 6022 in the second quarter. The group significantly reduced 32.5%.

It is undeniable that the fourth quarter of the future will definitely be a very difficult and full of variables. First of all, the social atmosphere is definitely the biggest variable. It is assumed that the future situation will be moderated, the atmosphere will decline, trading will rise, and with China and the United States. Negotiations will resume in the short term. Although the differences between the two sides will be unpredictable, the outcome of the negotiations will inevitably affect the future stock market.

However, in the future, the developer’s mentality in the next quarter is also a very important factor

I believe Members have also paid attention to it. Recently, a number of large-scale new discs have been uploaded to the public, which can be displayed at any time in the short term, but I believe the final push. The disc arrangement is also quite influenced by the market sentiment, but the high volume of the push can naturally push up the sales of new discs in the next quarter.

Other expert author articles have been posted on the Sing Tao Real Estate website. You are welcome to browse and immediately ask questions. The Sing Tao Real Estate Network will arrange for the author to answer it personally.


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