Recently, social violent conflicts have continued, Hong Kong’s economy has been directly affected, and property prices are hard to escape. Citibank announced the results of the survey on the intention of the public in the third quarter of 2019
The survey results show that more than half of the respondents (56%) believe that property prices in Hong Kong will fall in the next 12 months, up 28 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the proportion has also increased since the first quarter of 2019. Interest in home ownership was similar to that of the previous quarter. Among the respondents under the age of 44, the interest in home ownership was higher than the overall level. Another 68% of respondents thought that it was a poor or very poor time to buy a home, similar to the previous season.
The survey commissioned Citibank to commission the University of Hong Kong’s Social Science Research Centre to interview more than 500 Hong Kong citizens in August 2019 in a random sample telephone interview. It was at the peak of the social violence conflict.
According to the survey, in the third quarter of 2019, 20% of the respondents indicated that they are very interested or interested in the property. The figures are similar to the previous quarter, and there is no significant change in the view of the property market. Among the respondents aged 21 to 29 in the age group, 24% said that they are very interested or interested in home ownership. The proportion of respondents who are 30 to 44 years old in the age group is 28%. Compared with the overall proportion in the third quarter of 2019, it reflects that the respondents under the age of 44 have a high desire to buy a home.
Home ownership is affected by the fall of the property market
The number of respondents who think that they are good/excellent buying opportunities accounted for 3%. The respondents who think that the current poor/very poor time to buy are slightly reduced from 71% in the second quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2019. 68% still account for the majority of the ratio.
Li Guizhuang, head of retail banking at Citibank, said that the survey found that many people expected property prices to continue to fall, but the overall intentions for home ownership did not change significantly due to the perception of the property market. Among the respondents under the age of 44, they still maintained a high level of home ownership. interest. He suggested that people who are interested in buying a home should fully assess their financial situation and burden, budget on their own financial capacity, and choose a mortgage plan that meets their needs.
Big banks are stunned by the property market
In fact, Hong Kong’s economic growth is weak. The major banks have lowered their forecasts for Hong Kong’s GDP growth and are also pessimistic about the Hong Kong property market. Morgan Stanley issued a report earlier on the overall outlook for Hong Kong’s economy, stock market and property market outlook, and lowered Hong Kong’s economic growth forecast for the whole year from 1% to minus 0.3%, while estimating residential property prices in the next 9 to 12 months. Will fall 10%.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch also expects that Hong Kong’s residential property prices will fall by 2% this year, and it is estimated that the first quarter of next year will further weaken. It is expected to stabilize in the second half of next year. It is expected that property prices will remain flat year-on-year next year. DBS Hong Kong expects property prices in Hong Kong to rise by 5% this year, meaning that it will fall in the second half of the year and fall by 0 to 5% year-on-year by the end of next year.
Jinyu Group expects that property prices may be lowered by up to 13% from the high level in the next three months. It is expected that property prices will record a low single-digit growth at the end of this year. According to DTZ, the property prices in Hong Kong are showing signs of decline. The fourth quarter is expected to fall by about 10%, and offset the increase in the first half of the year.