The US recession seems to be layered

The US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell sharply in September, and the risk of recession surged, dragging down global stock markets

After the Hang Seng Index opened lower yesterday, the decline gradually narrowed and closed down 49 points. Compared with other European and Asian stock markets, it was hard and net. The best performers among the constituent stocks were real estate stocks, which may be related to the increase in US interest rate cuts. However, whether the United States will fall into recession or not will be judged by more data. It is unnecessary to disrupt investment and deployment due to a single data. Will the performance of global stock markets repeat the fall in the fourth quarter of last year [Figure 1], investors are currently Be careful, but don’t worry too much.

The United States, which investors think is the economic bastion, has also begun to show cracks. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, which was released on Tuesday, fell to 47.8, worse than China’s [Figure 2]. The risk of a US recession soared and the Dow fell 344 points on Tuesday.

Employment and service data will die

Whether the US economy enters the recession early is still difficult to judge. Other economic data from July to September in the US generally outperformed market expectations, and the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is still above 50. One of the differences between the ISM index and the Markit index is that sampling is different. ISM is mostly a larger enterprise, and Markit is more a small and medium-sized enterprise. Therefore, ISM data more reflects the weakness of the international market. The ISM index for 2017 and 2018 continues to be significantly higher than the Markit index. We still remember that the economy and stock markets outside the US performed well in the past two years.

At present, many investors are still suspicious of the US recession. The ISM non-manufacturing index announced tonight and the new non-agricultural jobs and related employment data released tomorrow night will be more clear. Fed Chairman Powell will attend the forum on Friday with the theme of employment and price stability.

In September, ADP private companies in the United States added 135,000 new jobs, more than the expected 125,000. In August, the data was revised down by 38,000 to 157,000. The overall private employment market in the United States is indeed slowing down. This year, the average monthly increase is only 145,000 new jobs, compared with 214,000 last year.

Trump political scandal plagued US stocks

In addition to the risk of economic recession, another big worry for US stocks is that “the US stock captain" Trump was plagued by the “Tongwumen" incident, and the political future was clouded. Lao Te posted a post on Twitter. The House’s impeachment investigation on the canal was a rebellion. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was more eager to allow State Department officials to attend the impeachment hearing of the House of Representatives. The mainstream public opinion in the United States has also begun to turn, and it is believed that the old special investigation will be conducted.

All kinds of signs are increasingly unfavorable to Lao Te, and the evidence for combating the election of opponents is obvious. The Democratic Party has new recruits every day and constantly calls witnesses to give evidence. It is still too early to say whether it will be able to draw money at this time.

The 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the show of new missiles and drones, is superb, just as President Xi Jinping has no power to incite China’s status. However, US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell issued a statement to give a celebration that China under Xi Jinping is like the modern version of Mao Zedong China. The contradictions between China and the United States are becoming increasingly acute. Even if the economic and trade negotiations can reach partial agreements, the hostile situation will be difficult to change. As China’s military strength develops, the power of the United States will become stronger.

Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridge Water, wrote yesterday that the White House’s initial exploration of restrictions on capital market restrictions in China will eventually become more restrictive. According to the article, according to the US International Emergency Economic Power Act, the President has great power to unilaterally implement capital and foreign exchange controls, freeze interest on assets and assets, and impose a demand reduction when encountering overseas anomalies and special threats. Holding assets, etc.

A number of media in the United States reported on Friday that the White House is studying the delisting of Chinese stocks listed in New York and restricting US pension funds from investing in Chinese stocks. These may be just the tip of the iceberg. The “economic and economic decoupling theory" is rampant, and once the capital decoupling occurs, it will hit the financial market even worse. If the United States believes that it does not have any advantage in military competitions, it is not unreasonable to go out with its own financial “weapons" that have an overwhelming advantage.

Demonstration impact real estate business model

The value of Hong Kong’s retail sales fell sharply by 23% in August, the worst since 1998. Looking at the situation in September and October 1 this year, the winter of the retail industry seems to be far from over. After the police showed gun injuries on Tuesday, the demonstrations had a chance to deteriorate further and the accumulation of hatred caused the Hong Kong economy to fall into the abyss. The local first-hand property market can support it. How much is the purchasing power left in the face of social unrest and the economic downturn?

After years of transformation, blue-chip property stocks in Hong Kong have stabilized rental income and reduced dependence on more volatile sales revenue. However, this model has encountered great challenges today. The office rental market has long been reversed due to Sino-US trade negotiations for four months. The demonstrations have greatly affected the mall and hotel business, and property stocks are difficult to look forward to.


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