Some netizens pointed out that the author wrote a real estate column. It should not mention politics
Although it makes sense, politics and the economy are closely related, which will also affect the property market. The social unrest that lasted for four months has not stopped, which not only has an impact on the economy, but also has a domino effect on the property market. The property market is divided into residential and industrial and commercial parking spaces, etc., industrial and commercial shops have always mentioned less, I try to analyze them in different areas.
The author estimates that the turmoil will not end until the end of this year
The result of such self-harm by the Hong Kong people will make the Hong Kong economy back 10 years. In terms of the housing market with rigid demand, the property price rose by 3.7% at the beginning of this year. It has already returned to its original shape in the third quarter, and even fell, and the decline in the last quarter of this year will increase. It is estimated that the annual housing decline will be 5%. about. The trading volume will be concentrated in the new building market. According to past experience, the new building’s sales method is flexible and changeable, so the sales volume will not be too bad, but the second-hand building market is more traditional and old-fashioned, and the trading will be seriously shrunk.
Shops are the most affected market. There are several demonstrations every week
The number of visitors to Hong Kong has been greatly reduced. In the past 11th National Day Golden Week, the number of visitors to Hong Kong has decreased by nearly 40%. The retail hotel tourism and catering industry is called bitter. Some large-scale brand stores are not early termination, or they are not renewed. Some vacant areas such as Tsim Sha Tsui and Causeway Bay have vacancy rates as high as nearly 10%. In this harsh environment, the rental price of the shop can not fall.
The author expects that the overall store price will fall by 20% in the second half of this year, and the rent will also record a decline of 10% to 15%. I believe that there will be no improvement next year.
As for the office building, let’s talk about the Grade A commercial building. Under the current turbulent environment, large enterprises believe that they will adopt a wait-and-see attitude. If the unrest in this year is not settled, then some foreign investors may have the opportunity to withdraw, or at least move the headquarters to neighboring Singapore or Tokyo, which will have a great impact on the price of Grade A office buildings in Hong Kong.
As for Grade B office buildings, although the vacancy rate has always been high due to its low price, the impact will still be small, mainly due to the high land price and the high cost of building in Hong Kong. The author predicts that in the second half of this year, the rental price of Jiaxia will fall by more than 10%, and that of Xiamen will be around 5%.
Industrial buildings are cheaper, and the overall decline this year is slight, about 5%. Next year, I believe the price trend is similar. In recent years, new industrial buildings have risen, but the price has to be around $1 million per trip. However, the use can only be industrial or a few designated film and television industries, and the use of the property should be carefully violated. For the entire industrial and commercial market, next year is a quiet year. There may be some projects in the market to launch the sale, but it is not easy to succeed.