China’s economic growth rate this year is expected to reach 6.2%
The Economic Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the “China Economic Growth Report (2018~2019)" yesterday, which is expected to have an economic growth rate of 6.2% this year. The potential world economic recession induced by Sino-US trade friction is expected to reduce China’s economic growth rate by about 0.1% this year and about 0.2% next year. From the perspective of Sino-US bilateral trade, the impact on China’s economy is limited.
The report said that the renewed trade dispute between China and the United States has led to a lack of optimistic expectations for production, exports, investment, consumption, exchange rate and stock market volatility in May and beyond, thus reducing the quarterly growth rate of GDP in the second to fourth quarter of this year. It is expected that the economic growth rate will remain at 6.3% in the first half of 2019 and remain at 6.1% in the second half of the year.
From January to May 2019, China’s trade surplus with the United States has reached a record high, and it can be seen that Chinese enterprises have high export flexibility and insufficient domestic demand, which will stimulate the expansion of trade surplus. However, if the global economic growth slows down, exports to China will increase. The impact will be greater than the bilateral impact.
The research team also pointed out that the price of China’s high growth in the past 40 years is volatility and liabilities. Among them, the household debt level ranks 54th among 79 countries and regions, and corporate liabilities rank 73rd, which has become the highest enterprise debt country. One. In addition, although the market scale is the world’s first, the market efficiency is only about 1/4 of the developed countries or regions. This shows that it is urgent for the Chinese economy to develop and improve its resilience to high quality.