The former Exchange Fund’s performance before the resignation of Chen Delin, the president of the HKMA, was as stable as the previous year
The investment income of the Exchange Fund in the first half of the year was 170.8 billion yuan. Although the record for the first half of the year was a record high, but the second quarter alone. Performance, down 72% quarter-to-quarter to 37.4 billion yuan, the quarterly Hong Kong stocks and foreign exchange valuations of 500 million and 17 billion yuan. Some scholars and the investment community believe that the fund’s second-quarter results are in line with the performance of the market in the first quarter. In the second half of the year, the Fed’s interest rate cuts should benefit bond yields. The Sino-US negotiations are also optimistic, but the political contradictions in Hong Kong are escalating. The impact is becoming more and more obvious, and the performance of the fund is difficult to be independent.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Chen Delin said that the investment environment is full of variables
China and the United States will resume negotiations but should not assume that an agreement can be reached in the short term. Once the United Kingdom has a hard Brexit, it will also bring shocks to the European economy and financial markets.
The spokesman added that it is difficult to predict how individual markets will develop in the second half of the year. It also refers to the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks in the second quarter. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.8%. Some non-US dollar currencies fell against the US dollar during the quarter, resulting in lower foreign exchange valuations. The allocation is to be stable, and it is not appropriate to measure the overall performance on a quarterly or focused single investment.
In the first half of the year, the Exchange Fund paid a fiscal reserve of 15.3 billion yuan. The accumulated surplus during the period increased by 121.9 billion yuan to 711.6 billion yuan. The second quarter bond income outperformed the first quarter by 39.7 billion yuan, and other stocks earned 15.2 billion yuan. As of the end of March, other The investment income is 12.5 billion yuan.
Scholar: Political risk is worrying
Xu Jiajian, an associate professor at the US Clinton University, believes that the Hang Seng Index will fall from 30,000 points in early May. The second quarter of the Exchange Fund is inferior to the performance of the market in the first quarter. He is more optimistic about the future prospects of Sino-US negotiations, but the political risks in Hong Kong are Worrying, the escalation of unstable factors will gradually have a negative impact on the retail economy of the property shopping malls. “It is a good thing to do." Exchange Fund investment is also hard to avoid being dragged down. The key depends on the government’s determination to resolve conflicts.
Another head of the investment community said that the annual return on investment of the fund in the first half of the year is estimated to be about 4%, and foreign exchange losses are related to the pound and the euro.