Trade wars, turmoil, catastrophe, and economic recession in this quarter, Hong Kong PMI fell to 40.8, the worst ten-year business environment

The impact of trade wars and riots has caused Hong Kong to be caught both inside and outside, dragging down demand for orders in Hong Kong

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 40.8 in August from 43.8 in July, indicating that the private economy has rapidly declined to 2009. The new low since the month; and the current down cycle has been pushed to 17 months, and the business volume of the company has shrunk to its maximum extent since the end of 2008, reflecting the accelerated decline in the volume of new orders, and the pessimism spread to more companies, operating Confidence fell to an all-time low.

Bernard Aw, chief economist at IHSMarkit, said that the latest PMI data showed that the Hong Kong economy fell into recession in the third quarter, and the business volume deteriorated due to the operational difficulties associated with the impact activity. The PMI survey results generally show that the annual economic contraction is about 4.0-4.5%. At the same time, the Hong Kong SAR Government recently announced relief measures aimed at injecting growth momentum into the economy. However, if the economy weakens further, it means that policy makers may consider boosting the increase, while output in August, new orders and export sales. The decline in the amount has increased dramatically; reviewing the history of the PMI survey over the past 20 years, the deterioration in August was second only to the 2003 SARS epidemic and the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

The Chamber of Commerce is worried about the emergence of layoffs

Chao Guoming, president of the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises General Chamber of Commerce, pointed out that the trade war has already smashed many SMEs, dragging down the weak exports, coupled with the recent series of riots, Hong Kong’s economy is very poor, and exports, retail, restaurants and hotels are all heavy. In the disaster-stricken areas, many companies have put unpaid leave, and then chaos, I am afraid that there will be a wave of business and layoffs. I hope that all walks of life will calm down and work together as a way. Otherwise, enterprises will reduce investment and the stock market will continue to fall. . He said that the recent measures introduced by the government have benefited enterprises, but they are expected to be more powerful in order to help small and medium enterprises in this difficult time.

After seasonal adjustment, the PMI fell to 40.8 in August from 43.8 in July, indicating that the private economy’s boom quickly fell to a new low since February 2009

and the current down cycle was pushed to 17 months. Looking back at the supplier’s performance in the past six months, it was the first to reverse in August. The industry reported that the extension of the delivery time was related to the security and the impact of the demonstrations.

According to the survey data, the volume of orders exported to China has reached a new low, resulting in the largest new order volume since February 2009. Nearly half of the respondents mentioned the reduction of Chinese orders, and pointed out that the reasons included the US-China trade disputes, the sharp depreciation of the renminbi, and large-scale shock activities.

Moreover, the business volume of the company’s production has fallen rapidly due to the rapid decline in sales, and the most rapid contraction since the end of 2008. In addition, the output expectations index also fell below the lowest level of the survey since April 2012, indicating that corporate pessimism has warmed up. Looking at the August data, it is expected that the proportion of companies that will cut production in the next 12 months will increase from a quarter in July to one-third in August.

August purchases fell the most in recent years

In view of the sharp decline in output and the increase in uncertainties in the outlook, companies are more cautious about inventory management. The volume of procurement activity in August fell below the largest decline in the survey since July 1998, and the consumption rate of input stocks has therefore set a new record. According to the survey data, the inventory level of the company has dropped sharply due to the decline in sales and pessimistic business prospects.

In addition, to help SMEs cope with the economic downturn, the Hong Kong Productivity Council will launch the SME Funding Promotion Day at the Kowloon Tong Productivity Building from September 16 to 17. The one-stop platform recognizes nearly 50 Hong Kong government, public institutions and the local government’s funded fund plan. The site also has an instant consultation and industry information sharing seminar hosted by the funded executives to enable participants to use. The most convenient and straightforward way to get first-hand information about funding funds to get through the storm.


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