The misfortunes depend on the blessings, the blessings of the blessings
The world is often unpredictable. A good thing may eventually lead to very bad results. Things that seem to be bad may also lead to good results. And the disasters depend on each other and transform each other. Originally, it seems that the fugitives regulations have been amended for justice. I can’t think of a rather chaotic street protest. In the end, I hope that in the current chaotic years, I may end up in the end.
Politics is also too long. Looking back over the past week, the chaos in the society is indeed worrying
The street protests are getting more and more fierce, the violence continues to heat up, the street fighting is out of control, the stock market is down, and the property market can’t be alone. The property market crisis has been triggered.
In recent months, the social and political environment has become severe and the economic outlook has been naturally under pressure. After the strike of the “three strikes” last week, the strike and the strike, what will happen to Hong Kong’s economic prospects?
According to the Financial Secretary, Chen Maobo, Hong Kong’s economy has fallen to the edge of the recession. The annual growth rate is only 0.6% in the second quarter. If it is seasonally adjusted, it is actually going backwards by 0.3%. Economic growth loses momentum. If the third quarter has a quarterly negative growth. In terms of technology, it has entered a recession.
Coupled with political events, Hong Kong’s exports, investment, and even retail sales have deteriorated in recent days. The economic downturn will affect the people’s livelihood economy and employment. At the same time, Sino-US trade disputes have also become very serious.
Lower 5% to 8% in the second half
Earlier, the two sides restarted trade talks, not only did they narrow their differences, but also worsened the relationship between the two sides. The United States unilaterally re-imposed tariffs and will impose a 10% tariff on imports of 300 billion U.S. dollars from September. The purchase of agricultural products has been stopped for retaliation.
Recently, the RMB exchange rate suddenly fell sharply. While the RMB fell below the seven-digit calculation, the US Treasury Department also announced that China will be listed as a currency manipulator, which will inevitably make future trade negotiations more difficult. Under various factors, there will be foreign multinational brokerages, which will further lower the target price of the Hang Seng Index to 24,400 points next year, and reduce it by about 6% from the current level to reflect the downward pressure on the economic risks of the two places.
All in all, the changes in the past week, whether it is the prospect of Sino-US trade wars and even local political events, have caused the market situation to turn sharply and exacerbate the flow of hot money.
Fortunately, the low interest rate environment continues, the real interest rate remains negative, and the funds need to find a way out. The adjustment of the property price may not come too fast and too urgent. It is expected that the property market may adjust 5 to 8% in the second half of the year.