Recent social events have eased slightly, stock markets across the region have broken through, and the ideal process of the Sino-US trade war has spurred developers who have temporarily postponed the pace of the push to resume their pace
A few days ago, a developer launched a large-scale real estate in Tianshuiwei District at “exciting price”, which is one of the most eye-catching real estates next year. Given that Tianshuiwei has not launched a new market for many years, it has accumulated a large amount of purchasing power, and the project is priced competitively. It is not difficult to estimate that it will attract a large number of users and investors to enter the market.
Although the new market is expected to perform well, some people worry that there is often a “competitive” reverse relationship between the new market and the second-hand market, that is, the new market usually sells well or even hits a new high, and the second-hand property market tends to do the opposite. And vice versa, because the purchasing power of the property market will be absorbed by attractive first-hand properties. Will things be the same next year?
Judging from the aggressive pushing speed of recent developers, I believe that the first-hand market in the first quarter of next year will still be the focus of the market, but from the perspective of the government’s long-term supply blueprint, the supply of private real estate will be difficult to increase in the future. Slowing the pace of sales has reduced primary transactions. At the same time, measures to relax the ceiling on mortgage insurance property prices will gradually allow some primary buyers to “return” to the secondary market. Therefore, secondary transactions should not be ignored next year.
The author believes that the real estate market next year, and even the long-term “barometer”, will be more important than the amount of second-hand transactions
If the first-hand market is hot, but the second-hand trading is greatly reduced because the funds are absorbed by the first-hand market, this property market is only a “single-hoof horse” type, and long-term continuity is doubtful; on the other hand, if the new market is booming and second-hand The property market also has a certain volume of transactions, which proves that the funds that support the property market are quite abundant. This “right and left” bow-type market rise is very healthy and can be expected in the long run. Benefiting from the relaxation of mortgage insurance, next year the number of second-hand residential registrations is expected to increase by about 14% to about 47,000 cases, the number of cases is expected to reach a 6-year high; the registered amount is estimated to rise to about 380 billion yuan, and will then create 10 New year high.
Recently, the second-hand property market has focused on price reduction and listing, and the transaction price has gradually dropped. The Midland Property Price Index has fallen for 5 weeks in a row, the latest reported at 165.11 points from December 18 to December 24, a weekly fall of nearly 0.6%, a drop of nearly 1.8% from four weeks ago, making the cumulative increase so far this year further It narrowed to nearly 2.6%.
As for the future trend of the second-hand property market?
Based on the above-mentioned reasons for the developer to sell the goods, I believe that the first-hand transaction next year will be the same as this year, or even decline. Second-hand, with the gradual accumulation of purchasing power over many months, second-hand is expected to “stable price increase “Even the more optimistic” price and volume rise “. What needs special attention is the second-hand trading situation after the Chinese New Year next year, or it may become an important indicator of the property market trend throughout the year.