Why is the property price index only slightly falling?

The Central Plains City Leading Index released last Friday, the latest report of 187.97 points, fell 0.22% per week

It fell 1.32% from the high of 190.48 in June, but it still has a 10% increase compared with the beginning of last year. If the property market only declines at the current rate, even if it falls to the end of the year, it will fall below the price at the beginning of the year. When it is settled at the end of the year, it will still retain a certain increase this year.

Such an increase is counterintuitive, because in many people’s minds, both the international situation and the local environment this year are not good for investment in real estate

At the international level, the Sino-US trade war is going on in full swing; in Hong Kong, the social unrest caused by “reverse delivery" has become endless. The investment environment is extremely uncertain.

In the past, if there was a similar situation, analysts in the market would expect property prices to fall by 20% to 30% or more

But this year, analysts generally expect to be more conservative, generally only dare to fall by 10% to about half. It is no wonder that some real estate analysts are blue silk, saying that they deliberately slow down the decline of the property market, in order to dilute the effectiveness of the yellow silk.

However, whether it is from the government or from industry statistics, it shows that the decline in property prices is very slight. These statistics are based on actual transactions and are not based on guesswork.

At present, there are occasional individual low-price transactions in the market, and there are also more than 10% declines. But it is also accompanied by a lot of small transactions. The media reported more transactions with larger price declines, while some transactions with little increase were rarely reported. So when the statistics show that the overall market decline is not so much, some people will find it impossible to understand.

The reality is that, to date, the bad news has only damped people’s desire to enter the market, and it is not enough to cause a fearful sell-off. Under this circumstance, the trading volume in the market has indeed decreased drastically, and the trading volume has decreased by nearly five to sixty percent. Therefore, the business of the agency industry has been greatly reduced. I believe that most of the experts will lose money. The Central Plains is no exception.

However, due to the lack of fearful selling, the decline in property prices was not large, and overall, it was less than three percentage points. The reason for this may be related to hot shots. Due to the high punitive stamp duty, the risk of selling buildings has increased so much that some properties held by limited companies and non-locals do not dare to join the ranks of selling, because once sold, if the price of the property does not fall, If it exceeds 30%, there is no way to replenish the property without losing money. Therefore, a large number of such properties are in a state of being hidden and cannot interact with the market.

In addition, some people think that the current situation in society is extremely confusing; but this is only a temporary vision and should not become a normal state. After all, “following" is not in the interest of most Hong Kong people. When the fundamental interests of most people are seriously affected, the public’s grievances will be reversed.

It is also because there are still people who believe that the government can finally control the situation, so some new ones that will make a big discount will still sell well recently. For example, the city of Corni, which was launched a few days ago, has 500 units in the first round. It can be seen that for many people, they have already identified “Hong Kong is my home". No matter how the environment changes, they can only give up on Hong Kong. Therefore, when they encounter affordable housing, no matter how severe the political situation is, they still invest in home ownership. Because this is their lifelong consideration. These people will become the mainstay of Hong Kong’s future.


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