The stock markets of China and Hong Kong rebounded yesterday. Unfortunately, the contraction has been reduced, and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations may slow down
It may become the culprit of the rebound of the A and H stock indexes. However, the upward trend of the market has not changed, and the health adjustment has been made. It will help the country’s finger to break through.
The mainland stock market showed a “V” trend yesterday. The whole line first fell and then rebounded. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by less than 1 point at 37 points and closed at 3,903 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 4 points to close at 2,914 points. The volatility is less than 27 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 10 points to 9670 points. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share indices fell to 365 billion yuan. As for the HSCEI’s full-day volatility, it rose 77 points or 0.7%, and closed at 10,691 points, with a turnover of 19.4 billion yuan. The red chip index rose by 43 points or 1% to close at 4340 points, and the turnover fell to 3.7 billion yuan.
A shares fell below the support level yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index 50 antennas (now at 3901 points) recovered and recovered. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2891.51 points and fell below the October low of 2891.54 points. The two indexes finally held with the “cross star”. 50 antennas and October lows, only the Shenzhen index is the only major Chinese index fell, although the cross star but failed to regain 50 antennas (now at 9695), but with the Shanghai and Shenzhen index to hold the uptrend, the overall trend is not As for the big difference, only the Shenzhen stock market is relatively sensitive to trade negotiations and trade wars. For example, in terms of index performance, it seems that the Sino-US trade negotiations have been blocked. For example, if China and the United States fail to reach the component stage to cancel the tariff increase, the first stage trade The agreement may have to be postponed.
The national indicator has risen repeatedly
US President Trump once again reiterated that he would revoke tariffs and said that the United States could actually obtain hundreds of billions of dollars from China’s tariffs, but admitted that the progress of the talks was slower than he expected, but the negotiations were very good, but still not Determine when and where to sign the first-phase trade agreement, but he does not care whether the agreement is signed, unless the agreement is beneficial to the United States. However, similar related remarks have appeared frequently in the past year. Therefore, whether China-US signing the first phase of the trade agreement will be temporarily “挞Q” remains to be seen, but the author estimates that China will inevitably include the cancellation of tariffs in the agreement, otherwise the agreement will China is unfavorable, and it is worrying that it is a “since and humiliation” agreement. Therefore, before the implementation of the agreement, the special meeting, etc., the trade talks will still be unclear, and the market will continue to fluctuate.
However, once we see offshore and onshore renminbi prices rise again, we can expect to reach an agreement and a harbinger of the internship. However, after a series of appreciations in the past three years, it has slightly depreciated. First, if the renminbi continues to repeat in the “seven calculations”, then the A-share index and the H-Share Index will not operate. In particular, the national referee’s callback from the previous week’s high of 10,960 points, if adjusted by three waves, yesterday’s low is a wave, the current b wave rebound, then there will be another c wave that is the last wave of decline, the author initially 睇 10400 The point will be the current wave, because the rise from August to September to the early October callback, the callback is similar to the 0.618 adjustment of the rising wave, so the low of 10061 points in early October rose to a high of 10960 points last week. In the same, if the same is 0.618 times the callback is 10405 points.
China’s development may wish to consider
As for the b wave rebound, such as the previous week’s high of 10,960 points fell to the previous day’s low of 10,564 points, with 0.5 times and 0.618 times rebounded to 10,762 points and 10,809 points respectively, that is, this rebound is expected to regain 250 antennas (now at 10720 points) that is the bulls The dividing line, but may end at the falling gap of 10842 to 10780. If the readers pay attention, the turnover of the H-Share Index and the A-shares is shrinking yesterday. The H-Share Index is the lowest since the rebound at the end of October. Therefore, even if there is a 20-antenna (now at 10630), it will show a “hammerhead” trend. It also seems to follow the big black candlestick to form a “six-six armor”. It seems that all of the rebounds are going to bottom out. The bottom is at the 10400 level that I expected, or it is still deeper, or it ends at 50 antennas (now at 10455). The weekly axis of the Bollinger Plus channel (currently about 10464 points) remains to be seen and depends on the progress of Sino-US trade talks.
The author is still able to rise up and down, and then challenge the second one. The reader may wish to wait for the last drop, that is, the index falls below 10,500 points and enters the market or overweight. The initial target is the leading stocks in August, such as ICBC. (01398), China Construction Bank (00939), China Life Insurance (02628), pharmaceutical stocks, etc., short-term attention to Alibaba concept stocks, because the market rumors that Alibaba on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for listing hearing on Friday, raising 10 billion to 15 billion The US dollar, due to its second listing, is expected to be accepted by investors as soon as Friday. It has been seen that Ali Health (00241) rose more than three hundred yuan to close at 8.22 yuan yesterday.
However, the author suggests to consider China Trends (03818), and announced the interim results on the 27th of this month, but its performance is not considered by the author, because the author is not optimistic about its core business, but instead pays attention to its value of 1.721 billion yuan. The Alibaba shares, which also hold the value of 192 million yuan in ant money, the relevant value is the results disclosure as of the end of March, in which Alibaba’s share price has risen from the then 182.4 US dollars to the previous day’s 186.7 US dollars, as long as implemented in Hong Kong Listing, I believe that we can further increase the value. As for the stock price in the past three months, mainly in the range of 0.8 yuan to 0.9 yuan, closed at 0.88 yuan yesterday, as long as the volume rose by 0.9 yuan, you can test 0.93 yuan and then challenge 1 yuan and 250 antennas (now at 1.02 yuan), just Whether it is possible to take advantage of the situation of Alibaba this time, it is time to wait and see. It may be worthwhile to see that when the transaction breaks through 0.9 yuan, it will be chased and then look forward to 1 yuan. The combination will also buy 30,000 shares and take a short-term trip.