The Sino-US trade negotiations and the Brexit, which have plagued the global stock market for a long time, have seen many changes, although they seem to have seen the dawn
Whether the first phase of the Sino-US negotiation can be implemented, there is still bargaining in the purchase progress of agricultural products and the US tariff reduction. The United Kingdom and the European Union reached a Brexit agreement, but the former Prime Minister Wen Cuishan tried to reach an agreement three times, but could not pass the British Parliament. The new agreement of Prime Minister Johnson is not changing the medicine. Can this Saturday be The passage of Congress is a question.
In the first ten days of October, the global stock market performed well. Many good factors have been reflected. Be careful as early as September, and take a break in the second half. The Hang Seng Index saw a high of 26,957 points yesterday and approached the 100-day moving average (27046 points). This line has been an important resistance since the middle of this year [Figure 1]. In the end, the Hang Seng Index closed at 26,848 points, up 184 points. . The mainland announced today’s third quarter GDP growth, the market is expected to grow by 6.1%.
Land resources become official and business
The major securities firms almost agreed yesterday that the Hong Kong Government’s relaxation of the property price ceiling of the mortgage insurance scheme provided by the company for first-time home buyers could stimulate trading, and the land resumption arrangement would also benefit real estate developers with large agricultural land. The blue-chip property stocks soared yesterday, with an increase of between 3% and 5%. However, after 11:00, the stock price began to retreat in an orderly manner. The most exaggerated is the new land (00016). 4.1 yuan, most of the buying in the market yesterday, returning to the market, rose 0.9 yuan. The better-performing New World (00017) share price rose from 5% to 3.9%. Real estate stocks seem to have a lot of pressure at high levels.
The housing policy of the Chief Executive Lin Zhengyue is quite different from that of the former Chief Executive Liang Zhenying. In addition to increasing the land reserve, the previous government also introduced various demand management measures to curb property prices. Of course, under the low interest rate, the policy utility is almost zero. The price has risen year after year. Since Lin Zhengyue took the post of Chief Executive, there is no measure to curb demand. On the contrary, the “Policy Report" released on Wednesday has been relaxed. It is considered to stimulate the public to enter the market. As for whether it is effective or not, it is still to be observed, and this column tends to be invalid because Whether or not to buy a building depends mainly on the economic situation.
The thinking behind the measures in the Policy Address is to maintain an active private property market, so that the Treasury has sufficient land sales revenue and property-related taxes to support the government’s huge public housing development and become a tool for social resource allocation. Whether this wishful thinking is played or not is due to the economic environment of Hong Kong and the world. The biggest challenge for Hong Kong developers in the future is land resources. Even the Urban Renewal Authority has been given new tasks to develop first-time homes. There is one less way for developers to expand their land reserves.
Northern Ireland border is still a barrier to Brexit
In addition, European Commission President Juncker and the United Kingdom reached an agreement on the Brexit, the US stock market has risen more than 100 points in the early period, the Hang Seng Index also rose more than 100 points in the night, the pound and the euro rose, the US index fell sharply. However, a paper agreement is not a matter of time. Former British Prime Minister Wen Cuishan has also come to this step and has reached an agreement with the European Union. Johnson and other “hard Brexit" parties voted against the Congress, and this time Johnson entered this step. The key is whether you can pass the Congress.
Johnson’s Conservative Party now holds only a few votes in Congress, and the situation is even more dangerous than Wen Cuishan’s. After the two sides announced an agreement yesterday, the Johnson Administration’s allies in the Congress, the Northern Democratic Unity Party (DUP), indicated that they could not support the new plan, mainly worrying about the problems that continue to be left in the EU customs zone. Johnson is now in the same situation as the Japanese Cui Shan, and Wen Cuishan sent the agreement to the National Assembly for voting. She failed to pass the test. She eventually had to step down.
This agreement can be said to change the soup without changing the medicine. The worry of Northern Ireland has not subsided. The “hard Brexit" faction may not necessarily support Johnson. The biggest party in the British Parliament, the party leader Hao Erbin showed that the agreement is even worse than Wen Cuishan’s, and proposed to hand this agreement to the public for a second referendum. Obviously, the market is too happy, and the issue of Brexit is very complicated. All political parties have their own calculations. The investors are most eager to go too far, and the situation is only clear. After the DUP did not support the announcement of the agreement, the pound fell from the upside, and the overnight increase of the Hang Seng Index also narrowed.
Recently, the US dollar has retreated, and the voice about the strong reversal of the US dollar has increased. Morgan Stanley’s foreign exchange research report puts forward a number of reasons for the weakening of the US dollar. One of them is that the US has limited fiscal policy after last year’s substantial tax cuts. When the economy is in recession in the future, monetary policy is the main response tool. On the contrary, the monetary policies of G10 countries such as Europe, Japan and Britain have been used up quite. The economy will be the main force in the future. Financial instruments are the main force. Under this situation, the US dollar index will weaken. The weakness of the US dollar is of great benefit to emerging markets. However, investors should see the walking steps. The US dollar index has been adjusted recently. However, several medium- and long-term averages are still moving upwards. Even 200 antennas have not fallen below . Still speaking too early.