The Hang Seng Index rebounded by 128 points on Friday
After a week of heavy ups and downs, the weekly bill will rebound by 1%, slightly recovering from the 4.8% decline in the previous week. However, Hong Kong stocks are still in a diplomatic dilemma. The local economy continues to sink due to demonstrations. Outside, there is an uncertain future for Sino-US trade negotiations. Coupled with the weak global economy, the Hang Seng Index has rebounded, but it is difficult to rise.
The initial value of the November Purchasing Managers Index released by Eurozone on Friday was mixed, with slightly improved manufacturing, but the service sector was worse, while the UK’s comprehensive PMI (including manufacturing and services) fell to 48.5 for 3 years. Low. After the data was released, the pound fell, and the increase in the initial stage of the European stock market was also greatly narrowed. Although, the financial market generally expects the global economy to accelerate growth next year, but the data seen temporarily, how strong this economic rebound is still a question mark.
The progress of Sino-US trade talks is overcast, and the ending will be a bit. Everyone has to estimate. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with former US Secretary of State Kissinger and other foreign guests on Friday. “The trade war is not something we provoked. We don’t want to fight and don’t want to fight trade. If necessary, we have to fight back, but we I am still actively fighting for not playing.” He hopes that the two sides can reach the first phase of the trade agreement on the basis of fairness and mutual respect. This is a report from the foreign powers. The official media in the Mainland did not report this speech. It may be that the US President Trump listened to it.
A firm position, like a concession to the United States
The content is consistent with the statement made by the official Chinese spokesperson, but the weight is much more important. It seems that China will not make concessions on key issues.
US Finance Minister Nuchin and trade negotiator Wright Heze will visit Beijing next week. This is an important indicator of the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations. If there is no sound on the weekend, the meeting before Thanksgiving may be lost.
In addition to the progress of the Sino-US negotiations, the global stock market is how deep the adjustment of US semiconductor stocks is. This year, the performance of the US semiconductor stock index in the United States far outperformed the market. First, there is a 5G concept escort, and the memory chip market has signs of bottoming out. However, the strongest sectors will have time to retreat. [Figure 1] It can be seen that the semiconductor stock index will have a downward pressure on the target price of the broker. This week, the index fell by 3%. Generally, the adjustment of 5% to 10% is also a leisurely one. However, in the case of a promising investment market, the stock should fall into the market and the market should enter the market. It should become a bear market. More than 20%.
A-share fund stocks fell across the board
Another short-term risk is that the mainland stock market fell sharply on Friday this year, causing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index to fall 1% all day. The stocks that fell sharply are all hot sectors this year, including mobile phone component stocks and printed circuit boards in the 5G concept. Shares, as well as semiconductor, biomedical and liquor stocks, etc., many of these sectors and shares are actively promoted by foreign brokers this year and foreign funds are constantly receiving goods. According to the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect, the North Bank has pulled out A-share blue-chip stocks with a large increase this year. On Friday, it has netted Maotai (600519.SH), Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Hengrui (600276.SH) and Li News Precision (002475.SZ) and so on. If this is a foreign fund to change the direction of investment, some sectors in the Hong Kong stock market should also be careful, because this year’s upswing is in line with the mainland’s same industry shares, including 5G and pharmaceutical stocks.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch recently lowered its economic forecast for next year, expecting GDP to contract by 4%; in 2021 it will rebound by 1.9%, and the situation in Hong Kong will remain difficult in the next two years. In this environment, investing in local business stocks should be careful. For example, Sasha (00178) announced an interim eclipse of 36.53 million yuan, but the nightmare may just begin. The turnover and same-store sales from October to November 18 fell by nearly 40% year-on-year. The company’s management has launched a contingency plan, including seeking to reduce rent. Close the store and control the cost of wages. Sasha’s stock price fell 3.3% on Friday, falling below the 13th low of this month, which shows that it is difficult to find the bottom.
Salsa price is still high
Although Sasha’s share price has been downgraded, the forecasted P/E ratio of 2021 (end of March) has been rising in recent months, mainly reflecting that brokers continue to cut their earnings forecasts, which is 14 times the 2021 P/E ratio. Cheap [Figure 2]. If you want to get the bottom, you should also review the situation.
The tenant business is poor, and the stock market is hard to be independent, although analysts still expect the rent to be increased when the mall renews the lease. However, everyone is seeing more and more Jipu shops, and the street shops are reducing rents by 50% or 60%. At present, the market’s profit forecast for the stock market may still be too optimistic. The current price of MTR (00066) and Link Exhibition (00823) is still not enough to reflect the future adversity.